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Slownenberg on 20 June 2021
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Kakadu18 said:
Slownenberg said:

Hmm. Well pretty sure Pokemon Diamond/Pearl remake is gonna sell like a normal pokemon game, 15+ million, so this year at least has a huge holiday title.

Medium to big selling games still to come this year: Monster Hunter Stories 2, Mario Golf, Skyward Sword, Mario Party, Pokemon D/P. Right there you've got two games that should sell at least 5 million, Skyward Sword should sell at least 3 million, and two will be major 10+ million sellers, plus Dread which is a big name though it likely won't sell that much. That seems like a good amount, especially compared to last year which was basically just Mario 3D All Stars and Hyrule Warriors for the second half of the year. And there is probably one or two first party games we don't know about yet. I'm definitely expecting better sales the second half of this year than the second half of last year when the whole year relied on one game from March to push sales.

Mario Golf and MHS2 aren't going to sell 5+ million. I'm expecting Mario Golf to reach 4mil in the long run and that would make it the best selling Mario sports game. Mario Tennis Aces is just over 3mil as of 2019 and is the best selling one. MHS isn't as big as the mainline games. You're overestimating both. Skyward Sword on the Wii sold 3.67mil. The HD version should outsell it by far. I'm expecting it to sell more than Link's Awakening.

Also Wario Ware could sell over 3mil copies. SMTV, NMH3 and Advance Wars are all likely million sellers. At least NMH3.

I think the only likely 20mil seller this year is SM3DW from February, but that's not guaranteed either.

I dunno, Mario Aces was just alright (played the Demo), but Mario Golf looks really good, plus much larger install base at launch. Could definitely see it hitting 5 million. Could be wrong though.

MHS2 is obviously a smaller selling series than MH, but MHR is gonna sell over 10 million, so saying Stories isn't as big as the mainline games doesn't mean it won't sell 5 million. Maybe it won't, I literally know nothing about MHS2, but it looks good and I could see it hitting 5 million compared to MHR's 10+ million. Even if it is just 4 million that's another solid multi-million selling game the second half of this year.

If SS sells more than I said then that's cool, that replaces one of the above games in my list if you are right about those!

I don't think SM3DW is gonna sell 20 million. I expect we'll get a Switch 2D Mario at some point (obviously) and maybe another 3D Mario. I expect 3DW to get to 15 million though. Anyway Pokemon D/P remake should also be in the 15-20 million range, so that's at least two games from this year in that range, and MHR and Mario Party will end up in the 10-15 million range.

Anyway, my post was about second half of the year looking good for sales, I don't really care whether my guesses for exact sales of specific games are right or not.