Sony's U-turn - Should first party games be cross-gen?

[The_Liquid_Laser]

the-pi-guy said:

The_Liquid_Laser said:

"Of course games matter.  No one said otherwise.  The issue is exclusives probably don't.  No one is likely to switch to Xbox, just because PS4 is getting subpar versions of new games."

People are very likely to switch to X|S if these same games are on PS4.  They can say "hey I don't need a PS5 to play Spider-Man and God of War.  I'll buy an XBox for Gen 9 games so I can play those exclusives too."  I.e. people can alternate from one generation to the next.  Console loyalty is not really a thing, especially not in North America.  In North America, we pick a new company to win almost every generation.

"What matters is quality. Grand Theft Auto by itself is a bigger deal than all 1299 Vita games combined. That's what the Vita lacked. It basically had 3 even remotely notable games."

Every console has quality games, and that includes the Vita.  The Vita has Minecraft.  That is even bigger than GTA.  However Minecraft is not even remotely exclusive.  I know, personally, that the Vita has about a dozen games I'd enjoy if you ignore the fact that I can play these games on systems I already own.  The Vita lacks quality exclusives.

>Even the Wii U sold pretty well at first. 
"No it didn't. It had a decent launch, then it dropped off."

I think you just disagreed with me and agreed with me at the same time.  The PS5 will take longer than the Wii U to drop off, but it can drop off too.  It can't rest on its laurels.  No console can.

"MS literally was the one who said they were going to be making all games cross platform for the next two years, it's possible they changed their minds on that, but they're the ones who started the conversation.
Additionally, every one of their games is so far coming to PC."

You should know better than to take Microsoft at face value.  They lie about stuff all time time, especially to screw with their competition.  We'll see on June 13 if they "changed their mind" or not.

>People are very likely to switch to X|S if these same games are on PS4. 

I'm pretty sure we're finding that's not the case.

1.) Consoles often sell or don't sell for lots of reasons. PS3 didn't sell as well as it could have because it launched at $500-600 with very few games. 

2.) There's a difference between what is actually exclusive and what most people think are exclusive. Most consumers are not as informed as people who frequent forums. As an example Breath of the Wild. It released on the Wii U, yet most people are going to list it as a Nintendo Switch exclusive. Most people are probably going to do the same for a lot of these upcoming PS4/PS5 and XO/XS games. And Sony's marketing has been trying to go the extra mile to let people know that Horizon, God of War, etc are PS5 games.

3.) The average consumer also doesn't care about the same things. 9 out of the top 11 best selling Xbox 360 games are also available on PS3, PC. First party exclusives are rarely the biggest driver of sales.

>I think you just disagreed with me and agreed with me at the same time.  The PS5 will take longer than the Wii U to drop off, but it can drop off too.  It can't rest on its laurels.  No console can.

1.) There are several systems that had a decent launch, that dropped off very quickly after. But there aren't any systems that retained its sales for 8 months and then dropped off.

2.) Sony also isn't resting on its laurels. Just because most of their first party titles are going to be going to both platforms, doesn't mean the PS5 doesn't have exclusives. There are Final Fantasy XVI, Forspoken, another rumored Final Fantasy game, Returnal, Ratchet and Clank, Deathloop, Ghostwire, and those are just a few we know about right now, and there are likely more coming in the next couple weeks.

"There's a difference between what is actually exclusive and what most people think are exclusive. Most consumers are not as informed as people who frequent forums. As an example Breath of the Wild. It released on the Wii U, yet most people are going to list it as a Nintendo Switch exclusive. Most people are probably going to do the same for a lot of these upcoming PS4/PS5 and XO/XS games. And Sony's marketing has been trying to go the extra mile to let people know that Horizon, God of War, etc are PS5 games."

It's true that "most consumers are not as informed as people who frequent forums."  Most people don't know what's on the the Wii U, because only about 13m people owned a Wii U.  The PS4 has over 115m install base.  They'll know what's on the PS4 whenever they look at what the store has (either retail or online).  Then they'll realize they don't need a PS5.  What you describe as "most consumers" are the very same people who won't buy a PS5 when the same games are on the PS4.  If Sony wants to sell the PS5 to "most consumers", then they are going to need some games that people can't play on PS4.

"There are several systems that had a decent launch, that dropped off very quickly after. But there aren't any systems that retained its sales for 8 months and then dropped off."

Here are the total shipments of the N64 and PS1 at the end of their first full fiscal years:

PS1  4.3m
N64  16.13m

It really looks like the N64 is going to clobber the PS1 doesn't it?  And we aren't even this far along with the PS5 yet.  Basically, if the PS5 has this kind of lead even at March 31, 2022 then it still means absolutely nothing.  The shipments for PSP and DS for their first full fiscal years aren't quite as dramatic, but they still tell a similar story:

DS 16.72
PSP 17.1

This one is gonna be close, but we have to give it to PSP right?  Nope.  It's still too early to call by data alone.  Again this corresponds to March 31, 2022 for the PS5. 

Now, in either of these cases we could have looked at other factors to see if the winds were going to change.  For example, we could have seen that the CD Rom was drawing in more third party games for Sony and less for Nintendo.  Those first year sales for the N64 were based on expectations from the SNES era, since Nintendo did dominate in Gen 4.  But that also means PS5 is in the same boat.  It's doing well at first, because the PS4 did well.  But at the same time Sony is making mistakes with the PS5 and the competition is tougher this time around.  Cross-gen first-party games on PS5 are a dumb idea.  (So is a $500 price.)   Meanwhile, Microsoft just bought a bunch of studios and Nintendo's system is selling competitively with the top systems of all time.

PS5 is not guaranteed any kind of success.  No console gets a free ride.  They have to actually do things that will attract customers to the PS5.  So far, they aren't doing a whole lot.

Last edited by The_Liquid_Laser - on 06 June 2021