Sony's U-turn - Should first party games be cross-gen?

[The_Liquid_Laser]

the-pi-guy said:

The_Liquid_Laser said:

One mistake you are making is that you aren't counting Sony's handhelds as Playstation devices.  The Playstation brand is actually not worth a whole lot.  The PS Vita proved just how much Playstation is worth as a brand: not much.  The games?  Those are the brands that matter.  It's God of War, Spider-Man, Uncharted, ect... that have real value and not the word "Playstation".  You may have bought a PS5 purely for the Playstation brand, but you are definitely in the minority.  Here is how well the PS5 can do on brand alone by region:

Japan: PS5 is not going to sell well here.  They like handhelds in Japan and third party games are now going more toward Switch and less toward Playstation.  
RoW: A fair amount of this category is other nations along the Pacific that have similar tastes to Japan.  Expect an outcome similar to Japan's here where Playstation loses ground to Switch.
North America: Video game brands don't mean a damn thing in North America.  PS2 was super popular in North America.  The next gen most of us flocked over to the XBox360.  Well, it just so happens that Microsoft just bought a bunch of game studios, and they are about to go all out on their E3 presentation.  Hell, Microsoft even goes all out when they have no exclusive games to show.  Just imagine what they'll do when they actually have exclusive games.  Meanwhile, Sony won't even be at E3 and we are instead talking about why you don't need to buy a PS5 because of cross-gen games.  North America is the market Sony should be worrying about.  They can lose a lot of ground in North America because of their cross-gen games.
Europe: They are likely to still do well in Europe.

PS5 is not going to get to 100m systems on Europe alone.  PS3 was the top home system in Europe, and they lost a boatload of money on the PS3.  PS5 is potentially in a worse position than PS3, because they are going to be down in Japan compared to PS3.  Microsoft is going to try their hardest to get a repeat of XBox360's success in North America.  That is what basically will determine how well PS5 does.  If Sony rests on their laurels, then they are going to lose North America again.

PS5 is only guaranteed two things: jack and squat.  They can't make a bunch of mistakes and then expect to sell over 100m systems.  Making their first party games cross-gen is a huge bone-headed mistake.  The purpose of first party titles is to sell new hardware.  It isn't to maximize software revenue.  It isn't even to make your customers happy about buying your system later.  The only smart way to make first party titles is with the intention of selling hardware.  For a console owner that is where the real money is, because the real money is in licensing fees.  More hardware -> more licensing fees.  Whenever a console maker doesn't try to sell hardware with their first party software, they are making a huge mistake.

- A lot of MS's games are either still going to be coming to Xbox One or are a year and half out, so why are cross gen games bad for Sony, but not an issue for MS?

- On the whole, Vita isn't relevant. Sony was convinced handhelds weren't relevant, and they basically ensured it failed. And market dynamics are very different between the console and portable, you even admit that Japan has more of a preference for one over the other.

- Vita also isn't the same scenario. The Vita got very little support, first or third party. It wasn't just an issue it didn't have exclusive games. It didn't get any of the mountain of multiplats that the PS5 will get, let alone exclusives like Ratchet and Clank, Final Fantasy XVI, and all the others.

- PS5 is going to be selling for the forseeable future, regardless of exclusives. There is a lot of demand for consoles, despite a lack of exclusives on PS5/XSX both, and it's not likely to catch up until next year or possibly the year after. At which point, both console makers have said that's when to expect more exclusives.

"- A lot of MS's games are either still going to be coming to Xbox One or are a year and half out, so why are cross gen games bad for Sony, but not an issue for MS?"
I have to wait about a week or so to answer this question.  June 13 is when Microsoft has their E3 presentation.  Sony has left themselves vulnerable.  Microsoft may take advantage of this opportunity or they may not.  We'll see.

"- On the whole, Vita isn't relevant.  Sony was convinced handhelds weren't relevant, and they basically ensured it failed. And market dynamics are very different between the console and portable, you even admit that Japan has more of a preference for one over the other."
Whenever someone thinks the Playstation brand is valuable, then the Vita becomes relevant.  The Vita tells us exactly how much the Playstation brand is worth.  The Wii U tells us exactly how much the Nintendo brand is worth.  That is how much a crappy system can sell just by putting the brand name on the console.  It's the games that have the real value and not the name on the box.

"-Vita also isn't the same scenario. The Vita got very little support, first or third party. It wasn't just an issue it didn't have exclusive games. It didn't get any of the mountain of multiplats that the PS5 will get, let alone exclusives like Ratchet and Clank, Final Fantasy XVI, and all the others."
Wikipedia says PS Vita got 1299 games.  That is a decent amount of support.  The N64 only got 393 games and sold about twice the hardware of the Vita.  Most N64 games were exclusive though.  Very few Vita games were.  Exclusives matter.  Making Rachet and Clank a PS5 exclusive is a smart move.  Making their other first party games cross-gen is a dumb move (Spider-Man, God of War, Horizon, etc...).

"- PS5 is going to be selling for the forseeable future, regardless of exclusives. There is a lot of demand for consoles, despite a lack of exclusives on PS5/XSX both, and it's not likely to catch up until next year or possibly the year after. At which point, both console makers have said that's when to expect more exclusives."
-This is wishful thinking.  Software is what sells hardware.  Hardware doesn't sell by magic.  It is true that when a system first releases it will sell for a few months to the most hardcore fans.  Even the Wii U sold pretty well at first.  This only lasts for so long though.  Most gamers actually want new games to play.  PS5 cannot be successful by resting on its laurels.  Console makers never get a free ride.

On top of that Sony is basically wasting it's first two years by releasing cross-gen titles.  Even if we find out that Microsoft is doing the same dumb thing, they could actually widen their lead over Microsoft.  Instead, it is Sony that is being dumb.  They are releasing all of these cross-gen titles and making themselves vulnerable to Microsoft.  Who knows, maybe we'll find out on June 13, that they'll be dumb together?  Or maybe Microsoft will have some killer reveals that will sell hardware over the next year or two.  Sony is definitely giving Microsoft a great opportunity.