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The_Liquid_Laser said:
Mnementh said:

I am not so sure about refiring the big guns. Yes, Splatoon 3 will sell a lot, mostly to people already having Splatoon 2. This will make Nintendo a shitload of money, and that is the goal for this release, but it will not sell a lot of Switches, as this games targets users already owning one. This is the main thing: sequels on the same platform do sell well and as they reuse effort from the previous game are cheaper, so they have more potential for higher profit. But they are less helpful to sell hardware. That is why 3rd-parties do that many sequels: they want money but aren't in the business to sell consoles.

I am unsure though about Mario Kart 9. While wildly successful, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is a port/remaster/remake (whatever you like to call it). That usually has not the same sales potential. Now looking at the sales of MK8, this doesn't seem to apply here, so I am unsure how much new Switches a Mario Kart 9 might be able to sell.

In the same vein I see some Switch moving potential in a true new 2D Zelda. Metroid was never too big a series, but some Switches might be moved with that as well.

But there is one big hitter, that can move a lot of Switches which Nintendo still hasn't tapped into. That is a new Wii Sports. People tend to disregard it's success, as it was a pack-in with Wii. But looking at Wii Sports Resort, that sold 30M. And not for the Wii Motion Plus, which was supported by like three other games and could be bought without the game. A proper new decently made Wii Sports Resort could easily sell 30M again. And I see half of them selling to new Switch owners, to people that haven't owned a game console since the Wii. And they could even give Wii Sports the Ring Fit treatment, which wasn't just a new Wii Fit, but something more. In the last time I felt like a Switch Sports got less likely, but then Miitopia happened and now I don't know.

Here is something to keep in mind about 3DS sales.

2015  7.33m
2016  7.59m

The 3DS actually went up YoY in its sixth year.  This is pretty impressive for a system that peaked long before this and was ready to receive a successor.  Most systems would get a pretty significant YoY drop at this point.  One big thing driving sales in 2016 was the release of Pokemon Sun/Moon.   The 3DS already had x/Y and Alpha Sapphire/Omega Ruby, but another Pokemon game still ended up increasing sales YoY in the 3DS's sixth year.  Big releases still drive sales even if the franchise is already represented on the system.

Switch still has several Pokemon games that are yet to be released.  And of course Mario Kart 9 would be huge.  It's true that a new Wii Sports or 2D Mario would also be significant releases, but Switch actually doesn't need them.  After 2021, what Switch needs is simply to keep YoY sales from "falling off a cliff".  It could probably do this simply off of third party releases at this point.  The quality and quantity of third party games increases each fiscal year for Switch (including this past fiscal year which had to face game delays due to COVID).  However, Nintendo isn't resting on their laurels either.  We already know Splatoon 3, BotW 2, and several Pokemon games are still coming.  I also think Mario Kart 9 is likely to get released.  These sequels drive sales too, even though they already have a franchise on the system.

A full fledged AAA 2d Mario is a killer software. Don't underestimate his power.