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Slownenberg on 31 May 2021
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Wman1996 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

I agree (with the bold).  Furthermore, I've changed my mind on Mario Kart 9.  I used to think it wouldn't come to Switch.  But the Splatoon 3 announcement made me think again.  If Nintendo is bringing 2 Splatoon games to the same platform, then I don't see why they wouldn't bring Mario Kart 9.  In general, all of those people who said, "Nintendo has already fired all of their big guns" didn't realize that Nintendo is reloading and is firing off a lot of those big guns again.

Good takes by both of you.

And yes, Mario Kart 9 on Switch is still very much possible, though not a given. The heavily rumored Switch 4K model is supposedly coming in September of this year. That makes me think that Switch 2 won't launch until at least November 2023, if not March or November 2024. 

Mario Kart 9 could come out on Switch (probably 2022, maybe 2023) and then have an enhanced port released on Switch 2 right at launch or in the launch window. That way, you could stretch the game out over two platforms. I mean Nintendo did that with Mario Kart 8 after all. And that way you have a killer app (even if it's not a truly new game) available right on Switch 2 at the start. Mario is Nintendo's biggest IP, and more specifically Mario Kart is.

Why do you think Switch would be replaced so soon?? 2023 would be soooo early even if a new model wasn't coming out.

I do agree though that MK9 on Switch seems like a possibility now. Because I could see Nintendo trying to extend the Switch to say like 2026/2027.

This year and next year we already know to expect an upgraded 4k system, BotW2, two Pokemon games, Splatoon 3 and a handful of other large first party games. Basically the insane sales momentum of last year is still going and isn't going to stop anytime soon thanks to the new hardware and huge blockbuster games dropping in the next 6-12 months.

A new upgraded 4k model allows Nintendo to advertise the Switch as not seeming old compared to the newer systems, even as the Switch heads into years 6, 7, 8. They can probably keep the insane sales momentum going though 2022 with the mega selling games that are coming plus the new model. When sales do start dropping back down to like 20 million in 2023, they can easily drop the price of the Lite, and drop the upgraded model to $300 to replace the original if they haven't already gotten rid of the original by that point. Release MK9 in 2023 (along with a couple other big games / sequels we're waiting for - MP4, new 2D or 3D Mario) so it can have several years to sell before the Switch is replaced, and that along with price cuts will keep sales from leveling off too quickly right when Switch is starting to drop down from its insane sales years. Then in 2024/2025 you release another round of Pokemon games (gen 9 and Legends 2), a last couple other big first party game sequels and some smaller/neglected series, drop the Lite to "buy on a whim" price level of like $120, drop the 4k system to $250, introduce the Nintendo Select discounted games on all their older games. Then in 2026 they're mostly going off momentum of their huge userbase and let hardware sales naturally drop, maybe drop 4k system to $200 to help out, as they start focusing on getting the Switch 2 ready. Rumors of a new system start getting intense in 2026 and that Fall they announce Switch 2 coming in March 2027.

If they are planning on replacing the Switch in only like 2024 or early 2025 I don't see a need for MK9 on it. But if they are looking to extend Switch's life to 2026 or later then it makes sense to have a newer Mario Kart to lead the way in keeping sales momentum going into the Switch's later years so MK8D doesn't need to try to literally evergreen for a decade.