I think Minecraft could be over 15mil on the Switch the way it always charts everywhere, but we don't official numbers sadly.
Was just about to comment that people constantly forget about Minecraft for whatever reason, only game with higher potential is some GTA Switch launched with the Pro or Switch 2. Minecraft is severally under-tracked due to lack of digital and NPD actually providing revenue based charts; in Japan it didn't even launch physically until one year had passed; meaning that we have very little idea about it's total sales there which could already have surpassed 3 million in Japan alone.
In terms of future games, there is always a potential for some third party game to be a break-out hit, but with Monster Hunter Rise you are pretty much looking at one of the biggest games that could launch by a Third Party in Japan and Asia. We are talking about the game selling over 6 million in the region this year alone before we even look at North America, Europe and RotW.