Oh wow Just Dance 3 is the most ever? That's kinda funny. I guess yeah the last time Nintendo had major third party support (the SNES) the market was way smaller.
Yeah, third party games were a pretty big deal on the SNES, and that was probably the only Nintendo system where they were a huge deal. Wikipedia has Street Fighter 2: The World Warrior at 6.3m sales on SNES, while the best selling first party game was Super Mario All Stars at 10.6m. So, the top third party game sold about 60% of the top first party game. (Not counting Mario World since it was a day 1 pack-in.) For a third party game to do that well on the Switch it would have to sell about 60% of what Mario Kart 8 or Animal Crossing will sell lifetime, which will probably be about 50m or so (which means 30m for the third party game).
Basically, SF2 was like the Call of Duty of the 16-bit era. I don't think Switch is going to get any third party exclusives as big as Call of Duty, but I think it is likely MH World will surpass the 10m that Just Dance 3 sold.Last edited by The_Liquid_Laser - on 30 March 2021