Switch Data Analysis: May Update (NS has record best May Year 5)

[HigHurtenflurst]

dmillos said:

HigHurtenflurst said:

I don't think Monster Hunter would have had as big as an impact on hardware sales as Animal Crossing even without the lockdown boost (Japan maybe, but not worldwide) however it is definitely a system seller so should boost the numbers.

March-April-May are still pretty much guaranteed to be down YOY though if the weeks align... last year they were 4-4-5 weeks, I dont know how VGC determines which months are 5-weeks long so I think only chance of 2021 beating 2020 is if April is 5-weeks this time.

Come June we will be able to see better how well Switch is doing compared to last year, I suspect it will be down by ~ 500k-1million (but a better holiday period could mean similar sales for the full year)

This year is 5-4-4. This is why there might be a slight chance for the Switch to outsell March 2020, but April should be a massive fall. As for May, it needs to sell as much as it did last month (1.7M), so that is also possible. 

I agree with your estimate of it being down by about 1M after May. June - August could also go in favor of 2021. It is going to be a close race in my opinion.

Does that mean you have figured out what determines 4 vs 5 week? Seems pretty random to me (last year the week ending May 2nd was included in May... but I am sure I have seen some weeks ending on the 4th being included in the previous month)

If March is 5-week then beating 2020 4-week I guess is possible, but it will still be a challenge.

May 2020 was 2.2 million over 5 weeks, this year I think its definitely only 4 weeks so I dont see how it could match that.