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dmillos said:
RolStoppable said:

tbone, it's time to make the bold prediction thread for Switch to reach 200 million.

I don't think 200M can be too crazy, if the 3DS hadn't shown up, we could have seen that a long time ago in my opinion:

The sold 230M together, The NS is basically having an equal trajectory to the DS the first 4 years (only 1.3M difference). I say that 200M is well within the possibilities, that is if Nintendo doesn't release a SwitchU in a couple of years.

I can see 200M+ as a possibility.  For me, just barely beating the PS2 is a conservative scenario.  Selling 200M+ is possible, but definitely on the optimistic side.  Switch is at the 4-year mark right now, and it still has several advantages over the DS at it's 4-year mark:

1) Switch still hasn't had a price cut on the base model.  People will still pay launch price for the launch model, and they don't even need a game bundled in.  Nintendo is still having trouble keeping the base model in stock in spite of all of this.  They have a huge amount of room to bundle games and/or cut the price over the next several years.

2) Nintendo used to have to support 4 systems during transition years, and so they cut support for systems like the DS and Wii early, before the successors even released.  They don't have to worry about this even more, because they only have to support 2 systems during a transition.  Nintendo even gave some support to the 3DS during 2017 and 2018, after the Switch's release.  If they would do this to a system which only sold 75m total, then how much more are they going to support the Switch, considering it already outsold the 3DS in less than 4 years.  The 3DS still had a couple of years of decent sales even after the Switch released.  People should expect Switch sales to still have some momentum even after the Switch 2 is released.

3) Third party support for the Switch is already better than the DS.  Wikipedia lists the DS at 2030+366 = 2396 games (physical+digital).  Switch already has 3305 games.  It also seems to be getting more software each fiscal year compared to the last.  The current FY may be the exception, because of delays due to COVID.  However, all indications are that the next fiscal year is going to get a lot more third party games than the current one.  This is another significant factor that keeps momentum going.  If a system keeps getting a lot of third party games every year, then it's going to keep selling.

So basically, the Switch is a better position than the DS when it comes to price cuts, first party games and third party games.  These are the big 3 factors that determine any system's success.  It very well could just keep selling all the way to 200M+.