Brexit

[JRPGfan]

EnricoPallazzo said:

Pyro as Bill said:

London does 10 Trillion (with a T) a day in derivatives. 50-70 Trillion a week.

You're right to point out that NY is a bigger 'threat' to London than the EU but it's not like London is going to start shrinking. They might grow at a slower rate but the City is going nowhere and anyone who thinks it's success is due to the EU is delusional.

While there is certainly a risk of a lot of financial services to be lost to EU there are also a few things to consider:

- Based on brexit predictions from 2016-2017-2018 the City should now be devastated with dozens of thousands of jobs lost to EU. 4-5 years after we know that didnt happen so take any prediction with a big salt mine.

- If EU refuses to have a deal about financial services with London and lock UK out of EU financial services, there is a big chance London will go South-Asia style and become a soft financial paradise/tax haven regarding financial services (I believe this is UK objective anyway) which could compensate for a lot of the losses, if of course the professional predictions about the losses actually happen.

- If EU makes a deal the impact will be minimal to UK and still could be compensated somehow.

"- Based on brexit predictions from 2016-2017-2018 the City should now be devastated with dozens of thousands of jobs lost to EU. 4-5 years after we know that didnt happen so take any prediction with a big salt mine."  -EnricoPallazzo

https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/up-to-7000-financial-services-jobs-lost-since-brexit-bank-of-england-governor-says-20210106

Upto 7,000+ jobs in london financial services have been lost, since Brexit.

+

Also look at this (less jobs opening in london in that sector over time):

(this is not because they have since filled all the positions, and have no more need of new work force, its because theres less and less jobs for it)

-" If EU refuses to have a deal about financial services with London and lock UK out of EU financial services, there is a big chance London will go South-Asia style and become a soft financial paradise/tax haven regarding financial services (I believe this is UK objective anyway) which could compensate for a lot of the losses, if of course the professional predictions about the losses actually happen."

Yes tax evasion, and ease of it, is the real reason why alot of the rich in the UK wanted brexit.
So thats comeing eitherway, and so why would EU just leave large parts of a industry in the UKs hand to profit from, when it could be in the EU?
Weither it compensates for the losses (becomeing a tax heaven)... time will tell. 

In the here and now (ei. not 10years down the road), all points just lead to the sector shrinking in the UK.



-" If EU makes a deal the impact will be minimal to UK and still could be compensated somehow."

Why would the EU compensate the UK?
UK isnt in a position of power here, to say "dont take away your bussiness, we want/deserve it, otherwise we'll punish you with X,Y,Z"
The EU would just reply "you do X,Z,Y, and we do A,B,C"