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Politics Discussion - Brexit - View Post

Pyro as Bill said:
JRPGfan said:


Day after you have headlines like these:

But New York has seen its average weekly trade in these contracts balloon by over $600bn (£435bn) since the turn of the year, data provided to Yahoo Finance UK shows. Separate figures shows London's market share has fallen by 75%."

The thing is.... over time, will William Wright be proved correct?

Is this just a drop in the bucket? doesnt really effect the UK fiancial markets?
Or is it a death by a million small cuts, that mean in the years to come, the fiancial sector is alot smaller than it currently is?

London does 10 Trillion (with a T) a day in derivatives. 50-70 Trillion a week.

You're right to point out that NY is a bigger 'threat' to London than the EU but it's not like London is going to start shrinking. They might grow at a slower rate but the City is going nowhere and anyone who thinks it's success is due to the EU is delusional.

While there is certainly a risk of a lot of financial services to be lost to EU there are also a few things to consider:

- Based on brexit predictions from 2016-2017-2018 the City should now be devastated with dozens of thousands of jobs lost to EU. 4-5 years after we know that didnt happen so take any prediction with a big salt mine.

- If EU refuses to have a deal about financial services with London and lock UK out of EU financial services, there is a big chance London will go South-Asia style and become a soft financial paradise/tax haven regarding financial services (I believe this is UK objective anyway) which could compensate for a lot of the losses, if of course the professional predictions about the losses actually happen.

- If EU makes a deal the impact will be minimal to UK and still could be compensated somehow.