December NPD 2020: Switch 2.1 million, PS5 800K, XBS 700K

[VideoGameAccountant]

Shadow1980 said:

RolStoppable said:

Given Switch's momentum going into this year, we are likely going to get yet another year without Switch getting its official first price cut. If we assume this price cut will happen in 2022 because that will finally be the year when it's necessary to maintain good sales, then why would the console get replaced only one year later?

I'll say it again, Nintendo is talking about this longer lifecycle to their investors, so it's not some meaningless PR fluff. When Nintendo reiterates this same thing basically every three months and then doesn't stick to this plan, investors will have a lot of questions.

How many years does it usually take for a console to get replaced after it had its first official price cut?

Usually? Well, there is no "usually," especially if we include PS & Xbox. Permanent price cuts seem to be all over the place when they happen. But Nintendo has been kinda sparse with the price cuts this century, especially when it comes to handhelds. Most models never got a price cut at all, though some new models have been lower-priced ones, meaning they could be viewed as a de facto price cut. Of the models that did get a price cut, the GBA SP didn't get a price cut until 2 months before the DS was released, and the DS Lite didn't get a price cut until after the 3DS was released. The 3DS got a price cut early, but only because it cost too much for what it was and early sales were hurting as a result. As for their home consoles, the Wii & Wii U got one $50 cut a piece; the Wii's was about halfway through the system's 6-year primary lifespan, while the Wii U's was only 10 months after release.

With the Switch, I guess it depends on whether Nintendo approaches it more like one of their handhelds or more like one of their home consoles, and it could very well be more likely to be the former. The Switch Lite could be the closest thing to a price cut it gets, as it was a de facto one by reducing the entry price point by $100. Nintendo may feel like they won't have to cut the price of either Switch model until they get close to releasing the Switch 2 (or whatever the Switch's replacement is).

As for the prospects of a longer life cycle, has it been confirmed that it's something Nintendo is dead set on? Also, does that entail that the Switch won't be replaced before the 6 to 6-½-year mark, or merely that it will continue to get some sort of software support even after it's replaced? They haven't been keen on supporting any of their systems in the long term since the N64 (the NES and, to a lesser extent, the SNES had decent post-replacement support). Nintendo's habit of abandoning a system tends to be preceded by a draw down in development for their current system as they devote more resources for their next one.

Unless they have a lot of massive surprises in store, there's already worrying signs that they're repeating themselves with the Switch. They already blew through most of their big guns by 2019. Of all their games that have sold over 5 million copies, only two (AC and 3D All-Stars) were 2020 titles. Aside from BotW2 and possibly Metroid Prime 4, they don't have any top-tier new first-party games announced for this year. The rest of the upcoming slate of announced titles is mid-tier titles and re-releases of older games. If we don't see something big announced this year like, say, Mario Kart 9 or a new main series Super Mario or Pokemon game, that won't be very encouraging to the prospects of the Switch having a 7-8 year primary life cycle like PS & Xbox.

I'm not saying it won't happen, but Nintendo has yet to give any reason to think that it will happen. Old habits die hard, and I consider the default position to be "Nintendo will keep doing what they've always done since the N64."

There are a few things you said that aren't true (one being half-true)

First, Nintendo does cut the prices of their system

• Gamecube's price was cut from 200 down to 99
• Wii's priceswas cut from $250 to $200 in 2009 due to declining sales (and likely the economy)
• The 3DS had a massive price cut right out of the game 
• Wii U did have a $50 price cut in 2013

So Nintendo has cut the prices of their system, but it's usually due to declining sales. The Switch likely wont get one for a while and, if anything, it will be in response to a declining economy. 

Console lifecycles for Nintendo also haven't been as concrete as you think. Iwata was really the one that pushed for the 6 year lifespan and it's why the 3DS was released when it was (the DS likely had more life left). In the case of the 3DS, Nintendo supported it with games all the way up until 2019. In 2017 (the Switch's launch year), it got a new Metroid, Fire Emblem, Mario and Luigi, and Ever Oasis. The reason Nintendo had to call it quits was because the games kept flopping (everyone wanted more Switch stuff). So I wouldn't say it's a drop dead date of 6 years. Moreover, the industry is moving to longer lifecycles. A Switch Pro would basically be confirmation Nintendo isn't planning to drop the think in 6 years.