| Amnesia said: Yes maybe, but meanwhile some trader have multiplied a position by 8 or 10 in a short time lately (from July to now), and I want to be able to identify this like they do. |
(I forgot to quote this yesterday...)
The short answer to the bold part is that you just can't identify this kind of stuff. If you want to buy stock based on the potential value of a company, the number of factors you have to take into account is almost endless, because the world is constantly changing and it's impossible to predict even what's going to happen to a single one of its numerous players, let alone all of the other players and how their different actions can affect each other. There's such a humungous number of variables in play at just one given time that it's impossible to be aware of all of them, much less to know which ones of those variables are going to still be there in a few weeks, months or years or which others are going to be taking their place or joining them. Unpredictability is the only predictable thing here (just look at the current situation). So, as someone else already posted in this same thread, this is all just gambling.
That said, however, you can still play with probabilities. In this case, for example, if it's true that GameStop stock tends to reach a relatively high value in the first Christmas season after the release of new Sony and Microsoft consoles, you have the option to buy some beforehand, knowing that a rise in price is more probable than not if those conditions are met. Or, if Michael Pachter says something about whatever, you know it's almost sure that it's not going to happen, so you can react accordingly (okay, just kidding here).
However, this sorts of "predictions" tend to be unreliable, especially in the long term. In the short term, they may work better, but just because there are less variables to be taken into account, therefore less risk of missing something important that could affect the value of a certain stock and less chances for some (unforseeable) events to take place in the meantime. But, in contrast, the prospects of big benefits are also lower.
Apart from that, there's the option of making some technical analysis too: if you have enough knowledge of that methodology, you can apply the aforementioned principle of playing with probabilities into the charts and try to learn about patterns, indicators and the like, so that you can use them to identify the more probable outcome. But, even if you do that, it's still just luck: betting for what's more likely to happen doesn't guarantee anything at all. It's just that: more likely. Besides, technical analysis involves having always a big amount of possible investments at hand, because otherwise you would just spend most of the time waiting for something to happen without really investing anything (until what you're waiting for actually happens and then you do your entry).
In the end, this is just a game where we are plankton playing with whales, so what matters the most is just keeping the head cold and not getting too invested (pun intended).
Anyway, I hope this doesn't sound like a piece of advice or something: I'm just a guy who toys a little with crypto, so any advice I could give is basically worthless. Instead, this answer is rather me having thoughts triggered by your post and expressing them aloud.
I'm mostly a lurker now.
