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Previous Monster Hunter titles' impact on hardware sales near launch in Japan, weekly retail sales estimates from Famitsu

[PS4] Monster Hunter: World (Capcom) {26.01.2018} (¥8.980)

WEEK -7 {04.12.2017 - 10.12.2017}
PlayStation 4 - 79.242 / 5.654.958 (+151%) (release of the limited edition PS4 Pro MH World bundle)

WEEK -6 {11.12.2017 - 17.12.2017}
PlayStation 4 - 73.142 / 5.728.100 (-8%)

WEEK -5 {18.12.2017 - 24.12.2017}
PlayStation 4 - 70.581 / 5.798.681 (-4%)

WEEK -4 {25.12.2017 - 31.12.2017}
PlayStation 4 - 58.182 / 5.856.863 (-18%)

WEEK -3 {01.01.2018 - 07.01.2018}
PlayStation 4 - 103.607 / 5.960.470 (+78%)

WEEK -2 {08.01.2018 - 14.01.2018}
PlayStation 4 - 41.188 / 6.001.658 (-60%)

WEEK -1 {15.01.2018 - 21.01.2018}
PlayStation 4 - 44.910 / 6.046.568 (+9%)

WEEK +1 {22.01.2018 - 28.01.2018}
PlayStation 4 - 140.432 / 6.187.000 (+213%)
Monster Hunter: World - 1.350.412 / NEW (game was selling out leading to big digital share, total launch sales were around 2m)

WEEK +2 {29.01.2018 - 04.02.2018}
PlayStation 4 - 109.286 / 6.296.286 (-22%)
Monster Hunter: World - 223.274 / 1.573.686 (-83%)

WEEK +3 {05.02.2018 - 11.02.2018}
PlayStation 4 - 70.172 / 6.366.458 (-36%)
Monster Hunter: World - 114.740 / 1.688.426 (-49%)

WEEK +4 {12.02.2018 - 18.02.2018}
PlayStation 4 - 48.391 / 6.414.849 (-31%)
Monster Hunter: World - 85.762 / 1.774.188 (-25%)

WEEK +5 {19.02.2018 - 25.02.2018}
PlayStation 4 - 36.193 / 6.451.042 (-25%)
Monster Hunter: World - 54.915 / 1.829.103 (-36%)

WEEK +6 {26.02.2018 - 04.03.2018}
PlayStation 4 - 26.843 / 6.477.885 (-26%)
Monster Hunter: World - 38.504 / 1.867.607 (-30%)

WEEK +7 {05.03.2018 - 11.03.2018}
PlayStation 4 - 27.323 / 6.505.208 (+2%)
Monster Hunter: World - 24.351 / 1.891.958 (-37%)

Total PS4 hardware sales during the 7 weeks before launch (including the full Christmas/New Year shopping season and bundle release)
-> 470.852 (avg 67.265)

Total PS4 hardware sales during the 7 weeks since launch
-> 458.640 (avg 65.520)

Monster Hunter: World's launch was basically as strong as the preceding holiday season for PS4 hardware sales. In the end World shipped 3.2 million units on PS4, 34% of the console's current install base.

[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 (Capcom) {14.09.2013} (¥5.990)

WEEK -7 {22.07.2013 - 28.07.2013}
Nintendo 3DS - 55.719 / 11.906.380 (+6%)

WEEK -6 {29.07.2013 - 04.08.2013}
Nintendo 3DS - 61.896 / 11.968.276 (+11%)

WEEK -5 {05.08.2013 - 11.08.2013}
Nintendo 3DS - 57.837 / 12.026.113 (-7%)

WEEK -4 {12.08.2013 - 18.08.2013}
Nintendo 3DS - 71.731 / 12.097.844 (+24%) (Obon Festival holiday)

WEEK -3 {19.08.2013 - 25.08.2013}
Nintendo 3DS - 52.141 / 12.149.985 (-27%)

WEEK -2 {26.08.2013 - 01.09.2013}
Nintendo 3DS - 59.392 / 12.209.377 (+14%)

WEEK -1 {02.09.2013 - 08.09.2013}
Nintendo 3DS - 78.300 / 12.287.677 (+32%)

WEEK +1 {09.09.2013 - 15.09.2013}
Nintendo 3DS - 298.354 / 12.586.031 (+281%)
Monster Hunter 4 - 1.875.115 / NEW (same story, game was sold out and digital sales went pretty high for a 3DS game, a couple 100ks)

WEEK +2 {16.09.2013 - 22.09.2013}
Nintendo 3DS - 173.544 / 12.759.575 (-42%)
Monster Hunter 4 - 432.286 / 2.307.401 (-77%)

WEEK +3 {23.09.2013 - 29.09.2013}
Nintendo 3DS - 139.808 / 12.899.383 (-19%)
Monster Hunter 4 - 234.713 / 2.542.114 (-46%)

WEEK +4 {30.09.2013 - 06.10.2013}
Nintendo 3DS - 117.739 / 13.017.122 (-16%)
Monster Hunter 4 - 164.593 / 2.706.707 (-30%)

WEEK +5 {07.10.2013 - 13.10.2013}
Nintendo 3DS - 242.780 / 13.259.902 (+106%) (release of Pokémon X/Y)
Monster Hunter 4 - 111.230 / 2.817.937 (-32%)

WEEK +6 {14.10.2013 - 20.10.2013}
Nintendo 3DS - 164.115 / 13.424.017 (-32%)
Monster Hunter 4 - 97.336 / 2.915.273 (-12%)

WEEK +7 {21.10.2013 - 27.10.2013}
Nintendo 3DS - 117.010 / 13.541.027 (-29%)
Monster Hunter 4 - 60.206 / 2.975.479 (-38%)

Total 3DS hardware sales during the 7 weeks before launch (including Obon Festival holiday)
-> 437.016 (avg 62.431)

Total 3DS hardware sales during the 7 weeks since launch (including Pokémon X/Y launch)
-> 1.253.350 (avg 179.050)

Monster Hunter 4's launch provided a bigger boost to hardware sales than Pokémon X/Y's did, despite MH4 being a lower seller itself and the fact that X/Y was the first main Pokémon game to hit the 3DS while Monster Hunter already had 3 Ultimate two years earlier which became a multimillion-seller. In the end MH4 shipped 4.1 million units on 3DS, 16% of the handheld's final install base (note: MH4 Ultimate released a year later shipped 2.9m additional units).

This took longer than I expected, I might do Freedom Unite and Freedom 3 later.

[PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom 3 (Capcom) {01.12.2010} (¥5.800)

WEEK -7 {11.10.2010 - 17.10.2010}
PlayStation Portable - 37.553 / 15.187.531 (+9%)

WEEK -6 {18.10.2010 - 24.10.2010}
PlayStation Portable - 28.057 / 15.215.588 (-25%)

WEEK -5 {25.10.2010 - 31.10.2010}
PlayStation Portable - 35.937 / 15.251.525 (+28%)

WEEK -4 {01.11.2010 - 07.11.2010}
PlayStation Portable - 31.865 / 15.283.390 (-11%)

WEEK -3 {08.11.2010 - 14.11.2010}
PlayStation Portable - 36.235 / 15.319.625 (+14%)

WEEK -2 {15.11.2010 - 21.11.2010}
PlayStation Portable - 94.236 / 15.413.861 (+160%) (new limited colors for PSP: Black/Red & White/Blue + return of Blossom Pink)

WEEK -1 {22.11.2010 - 28.11.2010}
PlayStation Portable - 74.439 / 15.488.300 (-21%)

WEEK +1 {29.11.2010 - 05.12.2010}
PlayStation Portable - 327.905 / 15.816.205 (+341%)
Monster Hunter Freedom 3 - 2.146.467 / NEW (... yup, it was sold out too, guess what we can expect for Rise)

WEEK +2 {06.12.2010 - 12.12.2010}
PlayStation Portable - 141.820 / 15.958.025 (-57%)
Monster Hunter Freedom 3 - 514.198 / 2.660.665 (-76%)

WEEK +3 {13.12.2013 - 19.12.2010}
PlayStation Portable - 146.035 / 16.104.060 (+3%)
Monster Hunter Freedom 3 - 434.837 / 3.095.502 (-15%)

WEEK +4 {20.12.2010 - 26.12.2010}
PlayStation Portable - 172.871 / 16.276.931 (+18%)
Monster Hunter Freedom 3 - 385.487 / 3.480.989 (-11%)

WEEK +5 {27.12.2010 - 02.01.2011}
PlayStation Portable - 75.982 / 16.352.913 (-56%)
Monster Hunter Freedom 3 - 317.471 / 3.798.460 (-18%)

WEEK +6 {03.01.2011 - 09.01.2011}
PlayStation Portable - 30.852 / 16.383.765 (-59%)
Monster Hunter Freedom 3 - 155.839 / 3.954.299 (-51%)

WEEK +7 {10.01.2011 - 16.01.2011}
PlayStation Portable - 26.462 / 16.410.227 (-14%)
Monster Hunter Freedom 3 - 80.703 / 4.035.002 (-48%)

Total PSP hardware sales during the 7 weeks before launch (including the release of new colors for PSP)
-> 338.322 (avg 48.332)

Total PSP hardware sales during the 7 weeks since launch (including the full Christmas/New Year shopping season)
-> 921.927 (avg 131.704)

The PSP had its second highest week ever for hardware sales when Monster Hunter Freedom 3 released, only beaten by its own launch week at 339.944 units. That's in spite of Capcom having already released three other Monster Hunter titles on the system, all of which were million-sellers. Although the boost didn't last very long after Christmas, it was a huge performance nonetheless, knowing that the system was entering its 7th year. In the end MHF3 shipped 5.3 million units on PSP, 27% of the handheld's final install base (note: the 4.9m figure reported by Capcom doesn't account for the last budget reprint that sold 400k).

Freedom Unite shipped 4.4 million units on PSP (the 3.8m figure reported by Capcom doesn't account for the last two budget reprints that sold 600k), but it didn't exactly provide the same type of bump for hardware sales as the other big Monster Hunter titles did since the series' popularity was still building up, it was more of a very long term boost rather than a huge spike.

Monster Hunter Rise is launching on March 26 at ¥7.264, including digital sales I'm expecting a bigger first week than Pokémon Sword/Shield (2m) but lower than Animal Crossing: New Horizons (apparently the biggest launch ever at over 2.6m). The ceiling for its lifetime sales will depend if the G ver. releases as a DLC like Iceborne did or goes back to the MH4U/MHGU model, but at least for now I can't see it going lower than MH4 (4.1m). Switch hardware sales before launch will likely be higher than any system listed above thanks to the releases of Bowser's Fury, Story of Seasons, Bravely Default II and the continued momentum from the evergreens, notably Animal Crossing and Ring Fit. Big things to look forward to, another 300k week for Switch is a real possibility.

Last edited by HereWeGo - on 17 January 2021