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I agree with Rock_on - I think MSFT will charge for it for the foreseeable future.

To answer the original question: MSFT will be very hard pressed to make money for the game division if XBLive Gold is free.

Last Quarter:

Zune + Windows Mobile + IPTV + PC Games + Consumer Software & Hardware + XBox Division

Revenue = 1,586 Billion
Profit = 89 Million

Therefore, you would have to remove anywhere between (6 million to 10 million paying customers @ an average of $10 for 3 months to be conservative) $60 to $100 million in revenue + the appropriate profit for it.