It's anecdotal, but I am already seeing prices drop on sites like Craigslist and OfferUp. The prices are still fucking dumb, but they aren't as bad as they were at launch. When my XSX preorder got canceled, I was checking local sites for prices and the cheapest I could find was $1200 for an X. Same for PS5. Now they're all $800-1000, a couple go over $1,000 but they are bundles with extra stuff.
My view on it has always been that I'd be willing to pay cost, plus tax, plus maybe $50 extra max. It will be awhile before prices drop that much. Luckily I found a Target that had gotten 30 in stock one morning and I was number 29. When I'd called the store, he said they had sold 4. It took me about 40 minutes to drive there and if I'd had gotten there 30 seconds later, I'd have been out of luck. They went super fast.
I don't know if the demand and rarity for these consoles match the Wii, though. Maybe the 360, as well? Those were hard as fuck to find.