Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity UPDATE: 3.5M in the first quarter

[mk7sx]

My prediction on Era:

Predictions for AOC? I think LGPE sales launch and curve might work as a comp (except at maybe 80% of that volume). Will be weaker in Japan but similar/stronger in the west, especially US market where BOTW probably passes 10M this quarter if it hasn't already. Also it will be launching on a global install base of 75M in late Nov 2020 vs ~28M in Nov 2018.

If Nintendo gives PR I expect ~2.5M global 2/3 day opening, and sell-through by Dec to be at 5-7M. Q3 shipments of 7-9M. LTD crawls to like 10.5-11M (don't expect legs to hold out past launch).

My prediction was ~2.5M sell-through for the launch weekend. With 3M shipped, I guess it depends on the digital share.

Possible scenario:

40% Digital = 1,200,000

60% Physical @ 70% sell through =1,260,000

Total sell-through = 2,460,000

Two separate variables above to tinker with, so hard to pin-point a real number.

I think it'll keep burning hot this holiday season and go over 5M shipped (another ~1M for black Friday and 1-2M in December), but tank after the holidays. Probably end at 8-10M in the end.