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I'm a lot more optimistic than your optimistic prediction, but it's mostly based on Nintendo shipping a lot more Switches to Japan. I think whatever Nintendo ships, that is what they will sell. Basically, I think there is so much backed up demand that Nintendo needs to still ship a lot more to Japan. If they ship enough, then they can go far beyond 2.5m for the remaining weeks. |
That's possible, I don't disagree with you
>3M in Japan for Q4 and Japan is probably around 20% at the moment in terms of global shipments, so that's >15 million shipped around the World. But I've expected large numbers before and supply wasn't there. With Vietnam allowing them to produce more Lite models to meet demand it might be the case that we do see such sales with Animal Crossing, Ring Fit, Age of Calamity, Momotaro, Pikmin, SMT III, Sword and Shield, Taiko, Puyo Puyo 2, Atelier 2 and a growing list of evergreens driving demand. So there is definitely demand for 2.5m I don't disagree with your optimism it's just I won't be surprised even if we get the conservative result for Japan. It would still be the best year for a console since the Wii/DS heights, but Nintendo might not prioritize all the supply for Japan, knowing their market position.
All those people who might buy Switch this holiday would still want a Switch in January or February or when Breath of the Wild 2 drops. PS5 won't change the situation in Japan but in other places, Switch will be battling for mindshare with the new consoles in North America and Europe. In the meantime, Monster Hunter is launching next spring, Breath of the Wild 2 probably later in the year. We have a lot of potential >500K franchises from 3rd Parties in Japan like Rune Factory 5, Monster Hunter Stories 2, SMT V, Pokemon Snap 2. Nintendo might prefer to allocate part of it's future production to keep momentum in Japan next year - imagine we just have a full 42 Week of a 150K baseline heading into the holidays. In 2020 they've so far had 100K on average for the last 42 weeks, if they maintain 150K next year that would give them 6.3M heading into late-October. With much stronger and consistent 3rd Party support throughout the year and MH and two major Nintendo/Pokemon Co titles. This consistency topped with an ever growing list of must-have titles: New Horizon, Smash Ultimate, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, Splatoon 2, Ring Fit Adventure, Minecraft, Breath of the Wild, Sword /Shield, Super Mario Party basically will lead to the record year, all of this year New Horizon & Ring Fit has been supply-constrained most of the year. Ring Fit basically has never had the type of week it could with enough supply >200K. If a Random week in October is doing 100K without any releases.. 300K during the holidays is the floor. If Nintendo could ship 6 million in the first three quarters to Japan they would but while maintaining 20% of global shipments only once they reach 35M can they realistically be shipping 7 million to Japan, which I think will happen next calendar year. Although they've scaled production to 30 million and likely will hit this for 2020, it would be 2025 where we actually see if momentum is slowing down and in Japan at least I don't see it happening. Next year Nintendo is definitely positioned to ship >35M if they play their cards right. Price cut, Pro version, big 3rd Party announcements, Ring Fit supply(lol) - I'm thinking it will be a historic year for Japan.
On a connected topic, two of the major beneficiaries of Nintendo's 2020 fall performance in Japan will be Koei and Konami, Koei just released their financials and surprise, surprise
- Atelier reached a new milestone in the franchise 500K WW, and a new game set to release in less than a month
- Fairy Tail which sold about 33K before exiting the Charts across the Switch/PS4 in Japan has shipped over 310K WW
- 50% of sales are overseas
- Nioh 2 sold over 1M, a bit below the prior entry and probably expectations
https://twinfinite.net/2020/10/koei-tecmo-q2-fy-2020/
Age of Calamity will probably give them the strongest holiday quarter in their history, although the game won't have as big of a launch as Japan as their games in the PS2 age. Dynasty Warriors 4 for example launched at >700K. AoC it has potential with DLC to get to its Lifetime sales over 1M. Still the major focus for this game is overseas where Zelda is a far bigger franchise. The game will likely have over 80% of it's sales overseas, so we are talking about 5M shipped by the end of the year - which for Koei is a huge amount. Nioh 2 shipped 1/5 and probably cost them a lot more in terms of production and marketing costs. At the end of the day, Nintendo's basically dedicated a holiday for Age of Calamity. Which is something Koei won't be getting every holiday season, with Bravely 2 still not dated and Rune Factory 5 pushed backed to next year, the've really lucked out. They could have had to share some of the attention.
Now if they have substantial plans for Expansions in time for Breath of the Wild 2, it's lifetime sales potential everywhere is even higher, >10 million lifetimes would be my guess. While signs are towards Atelier 2 to have the biggest launch for the franchise WW this fall. So overall things looking very good for Koei as their heading towards their best year in recorded history.
Konami has been seeing growth YoY for the last 5 years since they limited their AAA business, so although they've not had a lot of huge hits - AA efforts have allowed them to thrive. This year they will continue to see growth as eBaseball is already the best selling entry thanks to the Switch where it's looking like it might sell >500K lifetime. While Momotaro is shaping up like a huge Holiday game in Japan. Still Metal Gear Solid and eFootball need to appear on the system as those are the two biggest IPs for the company and they are currently simply not there. If they actually invest in great entries for these series I'm thinking they might have huge WW appeal and Nintendo will be very happy to push them in the West. I mean Snake is in Smash, I don't know what more to can I see about the huge missed opportunity. While with the way EA has been treating the Switch you have to wonder how much a football game can actually sell on the Switch WW. EA is probably selling a million FIFA's per year on the Switch without even trying
Last edited by noshten - on 26 October 2020
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