Kinneas14 said:
I like your analysis. However, what about Sony vs. Nintendo vs the streaming services vs Apple Arcade? Do you think streaming will be king? I think the value proposition of streaming can definitely reel in "da casualz". |
I am waiting to see if something like Gamepass ends up on the Switch. If so, then they aren't really competing. They are complementary, and it's very possible that both can succeed at the same time.
But let's say, for the sake of argument that nothing like this happens and they all end up competing. My analysis doesn't change much. Switch ends up dominating traditional console gamers in places like Japan, North America, and Europe. There are also people in these regions who might get Gamepass, but it will be more for the games instead of for the value Gamepass is trying to offer. If someone wants to play Elder Scrolls or Halo then they will get Gamepass simply because of the games.
I put "da casualz" in quotes, because this is actually more than one group of people. In places with a robust console market (Japan, North America, much of Europe), the so-called casuals are mostly people who do not like the classic controller. These controls are too complicated. They like using the Wii remote or a touch screen or something like that. They will never play Gamepass even if it's free. The value doesn't matter to them. It's the controller. So these people will play on mobile devices and maybe the Switch and that is it. Apple Arcade is in the best position to appeal to these people, but they also just might keep using the microtransaction model instead.
Then there are all of the people who live in areas where there isn't much of a console market (like India). This is another group of "da casualz". The gamers in these markets are PC gamers. But there are also people in these regions who don't game because they can't afford a PC, but they can afford a phone. A service like Gamepass might really take off in this kind of market. It makes gaming possible for people who couldn't afford it before. It also will be a better value than Steam, so it might take customers away from Steam.
So, if we are talking about the next few years, then Nintendo is going to be the clear winner in traditional markets. Gamepass will be the best streaming service and it might grow a lot if it gets good penetration into markets where consoles are not popular. And Apple's mobile games (including Apple Arcade) will be a steadily growing service as well. All 3 are in a good position to succeed in their own ways. If I have to pick a winner going head to head, I'd say Nintendo. But Gamepass and Apple can get to a lot of regions that don't have access to a Switch. All 3 can be successful.
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