| Sqrl said: The current miniaturization process is certainly reaching its potential within the next 20-25 years or so but advancements in other areas have already opened up new avenues which have been the subject of study and development for almost a decade now. Even if everything we are looking at now doesn't pan out the LHC will soon be completed and we will continue to probe ever deeper in our attempts to find the fundamental "particle". I put quotes around particle because a point-particle quantum framework is looking less and less likely these days. In short, one way or another technology will continue to advance, but that doesn't mean it will be at the rate it has been for the last 40 years. It could very well be slower and it might even be faster..although that seems significantly less likely. |
Advances in hardware are 90% die shrinks and 10% brainpower. Every new generation has roughly double the number of transistors available for the same production cost and power use.The 'limit' of such scaling is about 20 years away and has been since transistors were invented - new technologies for even smaller scales using smallerparticles (or as sqrl points out, more likely smaller space-time constructs like strings) are being investigated.
As for how far we can take advantage of technology, pretty much something like The Matrix is the most we need: something that can real-time process ALL sensory inputs and outputs for the entire body of every human being to a resolution equal to the real world. Probably evolutionary algorithms are needed too, to evolve an AI capable of designing the program needed.
