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KiigelHeart on 23 September 2020
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goopy20 said:
KiigelHeart said:
Minecraft as a brand is different than stuff from Bethesda. These new studios will put out console exclusive stuff to strenghten Xbox brand. for sure. Question marks are over TES and Fallout, but I wouldn't rule out console exclusivity either. Should be timed at least. Hardly a fanboy fantasy to see a platform holder keeping 1st party stuff exclusive.

I think it'll all depend on how keeping those games exclusive will impact GP subscribers growth. Is a 4-yearly Doom being timed exclusive really going to matter in the grand scheme of things? When will Starfield, Elder Scrolls 6 and the next Fallout come out, and will they be any good? Who, knows really. Skyrim come out a decade ago and Fallout 76 probably wouldn't have had much impact if it was exclusive on any platform. Same thing with timed exclusives like Deathloop and Ghostwire on ps5 btw. 

All I know is that right now GP is on Xbox, PC and Android and they managed to grow to 15m subscribers. Maybe 15m sounds like a lot but I don't think that's gonna cut it to break even on a 7,5B investment and the deal they made with EA. Especially when they've been giving GP out practically for free with their $1 trials. 

MS keeps mentioning there are 3 Billion mobile gamers out there, saying "If everybody plays, we all win". On paper it makes perfect sense and I think they would really need to tap into that casual market big time if they want to turn GP profitable. Its why they are releasing the $299 Series S, thinking it will draw in the casuals by being cheap. I just think they're completely underestimating the fact that not every person with a phone wants to play (console) games. Let alone pay $15 bucks a month for it and a $299 console. We can already see the first signs of this strategy not working as there's still plenty of stock for Series S where I live, while Ps5 and SX were sold out in minutes. 

They made an investment to grow their business so I expect them to use it. If they release their games on playstation for some additional profits, they'll break even a bit faster but might fall short on their targets to grow their own ecosystem. And I don't think it's worth it in a long run to rush to break even. 1€ GP deals are another example of losing money to grow. I think TES, Fallout and Doom will have an impact along with other 1st party games, and despite GP, those will sell a good amount of copies on PC and Xbox. 

I don't think they're underestimating anything, you just make your goopystyle assumptions again. And it's pretty obvious that early adopters are "hardcore gamers" who'll want the most powerful console ffs. As you said, Series S is for casuals and will sell more during holiday season.