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src said:
MHW did 3.5 -4 million.

Considering the series's past, with neither 3DS or SW entries showing this breakout factor, I expect something to the series usual performance: 3.5 - 5 million.

MHW did 2.8m it sold less than the prior entries on 3DS and PSP.

https://www.gematsu.com/2019/02/famitsu-2018-japan-video-game-sales-report