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Zero_Revolution on 11 September 2020
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Cerebralbore101 said:
Mnementh said:

I think it is generally a bad idea to subjectively decide which games should and shouldn't count. Basically all that matters is: does it sell?

I also think, that excluding 3rd-party is an argument designed to make Nintendo look good. Because if we exclude 3rd-parties, Playstation and Xbox usually look bad. But people have no problem counting Cyberpunk as a big title for them, so we shouldn't make such reservations.

Obviously I cannot tell yet, how well these titles will sell. But I can give my opinion, that the five I mentioned will play a role in shaping the sales over the holidays.

Last: I never said this lineup is better than 2018. I said, it is a worthwile lineup. I clearly even stated, that it misses the big punch title like Pokemon or Smash. But I think the holidays can be filled with a bunch of these smaller titles. And that range and diversity isn't looking too shabby. I think Switch owners will find a game to buy from their holiday money.

Well if we're talking about sales, I don't see this holiday lineup outselling 2018's. Smash + Poke'mon Let's Go is just too much. For both years overall though? Animal Crossing is an absolute sales monster at 25-35 million in its first year, so it's possible. Unlikely but possible. I'd give it 15% odds that AC carries 2020 to better overall software sales than 2018.

Xbox usually looks bad, but Playstation? On an overall yearly 1st and 2nd party output basis they are just as good as Nintendo, if not better. But anyway, even if we were to accept Bravely Default II, we'd have to accept Valkyria 4 in the 2018 comparison. Did Valkyria 4 sell well? No, but it was a fantastic game.

Yeah, I didn't mean to imply that you thought 2020 was better than 2018. The 2018 vs 2020 comparison wasn't trying to imply that the OP thought that. I very nearly quoted you on the Smash + Pokemon missing comment. I was going to say that you hit the nail on the head with that comment. Couldn't agree more, that Nintendo is missing at least one big Holidays seller, compared to other years. Animal Crossing's insane leg's not withstanding.

Zero_Revolution said:

It makes zero sense to exclude major third party titles when those are the driving force for other platforms. But especially in this case, as Nintendo is actually publishing Bravely Default II. If we also include other major third party exclusives, No More Heroes 3 is still slated for this year. And Mario Kart Live features complete software in addition to the toy. There's no reason to arbitrarily decide which games should count as their lineup based on your personal preferences. I personally don't care about Bravely or Mario Kart Live but to say they just don't count for absolutely no reason is being completely unfair. Even more so seeing as you would think a new Metroid or F-Zero to count when those would be MUCH smaller releases sales wise for Nintendo compared to Hyrule Warriors or Mario 3D All Stars. Maybe even smaller than Bravely Default, which did really well on 3DS, and better than the Metroid games released on that platform.

I see your point about things counting or not counting.

I want you to imagine Nintendo's 2018 only worse. In this alternate timeline Smash Ultimate doesn't exist. Octopath Traveler got delayed to December 2018. Labo is now a holidays title. Bayonetta 2, also got moved to the Holidays release window. Tropical Freeze is now an early 2019 release. Valkyria 4 doesn't exist. Neither does Super Mario Party. Poke'mon Let's Go is still there of course. I think we can both agree that such a scenario would be worse than what Nintendo actually had in 2018.

This alternate scenario lines roughly lines up with what we know Nintendo has so far for holidays 2020.

Bravely Default II = Octopath
Labo = Mario Kart RC Cars
Poke'mon Let's Go = 3D All Stars*
Bayonetta 2 = Pikmin 3
Torna = Age of Calamity

*Okay, 3D All Stars and Let's Go aren't exactly a 1 to 1 comparison. Let's Go is a remake with enough twists to make it its own game, while 3D All Stars is a very low effort compilation. But I think 3D All Stars will sell roughly 8 to 15 million units, so saleswise, I think it fits.

On a personal level, I'm very disappointed in Nintendo's holiday schedule, because the only thing new I'll be picking up is Age of Calamity. But on an objective level, I think we can agree that Nintendo's 2020 Holiday release schedule looks a lot like the alternate 2018 Holiday release schedule that I layed out above. 

P.S. I would love for NMH3 this year! Sadly I've lost hope in that. Bravely Default II might even get delayed. :(

I can agree to an extent, but I think the situation here is still pretty different. Hyrule Warriors is bigger than Torna and is also a full price new game release. That alongside the nature of it being tied to BotW and being the Canon prequel should make it a pretty decent seller, 4-5 million easily. 3D All-Stars may outsell the Let's Go games and I don't exactly think they are comparable products, but I'll agree that they will do as well as each other. Pikmin 3 will likely be a bigger deal than Bayonetta, and they are also quite different games. This will appeal to a new audience and to those who never played a game in the series before as it will be heavily marketed by Nintendo being a first party game. And then Bravely Default is a bigger IP than Octopath. 

I don't think their lineup is amazing or anything but I'm just not fully agreeing that it's as disappointing as you say, even if it might be disappointing to you personally. There's a lot of games and they're all pretty different from each other. They have a good lineup with lots of variety that will pull in a lot of different people to play. I think all things considered, especially with the pandemic, their lineup is a lot better than it could have been.