It all really comes down to how aggressive sony wants to be.
The most solid rumor on the BOM for PS5 was $450, and at that time that rumor was citing costs of certain components being high. But since then new info suggests that the cost of those components has dropped. And I think this coupled with stories of better than expected yields ties to why sony could up estimated shipments for the 2020 fiscal year to 10M from 6M.
But lets still take that $450 as the BOM. There is usually around an additional 15%-20% of hidden costs that get tagged onto that BOM. These costs are basically taxes and retailers cut. Which brings the true cost of a $450 BOM console to around $520. So let's say $520 for the PS5 and $490 for the PS5D.
Now question is, how much of a loss will sony be willing to take per console?
For reference, with the PS4 they took a $60-$80 loss per unit sold. However, they were able to break even on every console for every PS+ annual sub made + game purchase. With the PS3, hey took a whopping $200 - $250 loss o very console sold. And at a time where they didn't have PS+ and digital distribution was not what it is today.
I think its possible sony can be willing to take anything as much as a $70 - $90 loss per console sold. Which puts them just $10 over what they took on the PS4. That would allow them to sell the PS5D for $399 ($90 loss) and the PS5 for $449 ($70 loss). They would ship more of the digital SKU though, as they stand to make more money on that SKU over both the short and long term.
My estimates may be off by $10-$20 in either direction but it keeps everything in the same ballpark.
