But what if they had the capacity to sell 30 million. Unlike prior years now they have two production lines NSW and NSW L. Also they diversified their supply chain which meant that now factories in Vietnam can scale NSW L production. It's very likely the vast majority of NSW are still being made in China because they require far more work from a qualified workforce. Vietnam simply doesn't have the needed workforce for the NSW but that's why NSW Le was created. This is what allows them to scale production with demand. Personally I expect that Switch production to be pretty limited by the type of qualification needed to work with the three components(dock, tablet, joycons). This is one of the reasons they've never been able to scale production of the OG Switch and Lite was launched.
NSW is still not that far from where we started in 2019 they sold 16.95M while in 2020 14.83M for this year I expect 16-20M. It's diffucult to know whether we can see growth for the rest of the fyscal year but that's what I expect.
NSW L is the device they could use to greatly expand sales during the holidays. In Japan, NSW is at flat compared to last year, but due to NSW L hardware sales have doubled. NSW L sales were at 6.19M FY2020 according to their FY results, but for FY2021 they could very well produce 15M.
But to justify such a supply either Breath of the Wild 2 needs to release in the fall or they need to have a great DLC Strategy in place currently we know about New Horizon and Smash Ultimate but to keep momentum Ring Fit Adventure and either Splatoon 2 or Mario Kart 8 Deluxe need to also receive some more support. Specifically, Ring Fit Adventure bundles, new content and big marketing could push it into the zeitgeist this holiday season for all types of consumers. This game's full potential is still unknown there was a thread whether it could be compared to Wii series and I definitely believe if Nintendo pushes it it could sell 10M this holiday quarter alone.
I do agree with you that they could end up releasing nothing additional for the rest of the year and still end up with 25M sales easily..
Yep, exactly what I expected to happen. And people are still waiting for Switch demand and sales to fall off a cliff any minute now...