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I mostly agree with what the OP has said, but I'd probably put it a different way.  Here is what is driving sales on Nintendo IP.

1) For any new iteration in a series you can expect about 25% to be disappointing, 50% to be solid but not exceptional, and 25% to be exceptionally good.  Most fans consider Zelda, Smash and Animal Crossing to be exceptional on the Switch, and that is why they are selling far, far beyond what they ever did before.  However, Pokemon is considered disappointing by most of it's fans and it is still selling better than the 3DS Pokemon games, so this is clearly not the only factor.  

2) Mobile games are marketing certain IP.  These games give people a taste of the core experience and some people decide they want the whole thing.  Pokemon, Fire Emblem, Mario Kart, and Animal Crossing all have mobile games and these are giving these IP a boost on the Switch.  So when you get a game like Animal Crossing that is a) exceptionally well made, b) is marketed to the mobile audience, and c) comes out right at the beginning of a quarantine then you have a perfect storm of explosive sales.  This is also why Nintendo needs to make a proper 2D Mario to go with the Mario Run mobile game.  However, it doesn't explain Zelda and Smash which don't have mobile games.

3) Consolidation.  Having software consolidated on one platform helps a lot with a steady stream of software releases, but that still isn't the most important part of consolidation.  The most important thing is the consolidation of the customers.  Smash Bros was released on both the Wii U and 3DS and that kind of split the fan base.  On the Switch they can make a better game, and all Smash fans are on the same platform.  Home gamers can now play Pokemon and handheld fans get games like BotW which is so much larger in scope (and better) than any original Zelda that appeared on a handheld before.  Both home and handheld gamers get the best of both platforms.  Naysayers say, "What is Switch going to do without AAA third party games", but Switch actually is getting extra AAA games simply by combining home and handheld in one platform.  Home gamers never got an Animal Crossing game that sold anywhere near 10m, but now they are getting one that is on track to sell 40m+.  (While the PS4 doesn't have any game that sold that much on it's platform alone.  How does it sell without Animal Crossing and Mario Kart?  I digress.)  That is where Nintendo is getting it's AAA games.  Nintendo is bringing extra heavy hitters to both home and handheld fanbases just by combining them together.

Last edited by The_Liquid_Laser - on 10 August 2020