Poll - Is Switch a 9th gen console?

[JWeinCom]

The_Liquid_Laser said:

JWeinCom said:

Yes... the Vita and the 3DS competed... and by looking at the factors we could have predicted how the competition would look.  Same with the Wii U and PS4/One. Looking at price points/features/ and specs we can actually predict how one system will impact the other. 

I figured that was the point... to actually make meaningful predictions about the market. If your point is just to predict which consoles will be "competing" in some sense, that strikes me as profoundly useless. As someone who worked in gaming retail, I can tell you that people with next to zero knowledge about the gaming industry and no concept of generations figured out which systems were competing easily and without conducting anything resembling a scientific study.

Products compete when they're similar. That's about as simple as it gets. We could talk about exactly which factors are similar, but if you want a one word explanation, there it is; similarity. Saying that they're competing because "they're in the same generation" is not actually any simpler, because it requires creating an unnecessary term, and worse, nobody really seems to agree on what that term means.

And similarity actually explains why consoles would compete. If we assume people buy a product because they want it for some particular use, then it's basic common sense that a potential customer will choose between products that have that functionality. On the other hand, there's no logical reason to expect that two products would compete just because they were launched a certain amount of time after a predecessor. 

To give one clear example of why this concept is pretty much useless, let's say, hypothetically that next march, exactly four years after the Switch's release date, Nintendo releases a new system that is more powerful than either the PS5 or XBox SX, is still a hybrid with roughly the same size as the Switch, has identical third party support to the PS5/XBox X, and costs 100 dollars.

If, generation, as you define it, is the relevant factor, then this would be a gen 10 system by your logic, and would not compete with PS5 and XBox SX or hurt their sales. Is that what you think would happen?

Let me be clear and specific then, and also bring this back to the topic of the thread.  Here is my hypothesis and prediction for our current situation.

Hypothesis: Switch is a Generation 9 console that is competing with PS5 and Series X.
Prediction: PS5+Series X lifetime sales will be at least 30% lower than PS4+XB1 sales.

Since Switch is obviously very successful, it should take sales away from Playstation and XBox if they are competing.  If it doesn't, then they aren't competing.

Do you agree with my prediction?  Do you think it will come true?  If you disagree, then it is a meaningful prediction.  My hypothesis is predicting something that all of your analysis is not.  On the other hand, if you agree, then we'll have to go back to debating Occam's Razor.  So do you agree or disagree?

Gotta be honest, it's a little vexing that you refused to address the hypo which is designed to point out the flaw...

I agree with your hypothesis in so far as the Switch will compete with the PS5 and XBox One X. I think that's a pretty trivial prediction. All three companies want you to buy their gaming machine. So, yeah they're going to compete.

What generation the Switch is not a hypothesis, it's a label you're applying, and a useless one. We can call the Switch a generation 8 system, and it can still compete with the XBoxSX and PS5. Or, we could not worry about generations at all, and they'll still compete. 

We know from mountains of experience that similar products will compete in the market. Similarity is a perfectly adequate (actually, superior) way to explain competition. Why then should we violate Occam's Razor by adding a new and ill-defined concept?

As for your prediction, I have no idea. I know too little about price points, libraries, what other companies like Google or Apple may do going forward, and other factors that may influence sales. And it really has nothing to do with generations. Console sales can fluctuate based on a variety of factors. I can believe the Switch will compete with the PS5 and XBox One, and believe that the sales of the XBox One and PS5 will go up. Or I can believe Switch is not going to compete with them, and sales will still go down. 

If sales of PS5/Series X is your "test", then that test doesn't actually address your variable. That "test" would only work if decreased sales could only be explained by the Switch competing or not competing, which is obviously not the case. By your definitions, the Wii U was a generation 8 console, it competed with the XBox One and PS4, but sales of those systems remained constant with Gen 6. So, I'm genuinely confused why a drop in XBoxX and PS5 sales would have any bearing on what generation the Switch is.

Last edited by JWeinCom - on 04 August 2020