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It doesn't need to sell 20 million for the next 5 years. This fiscal year it will probably hit 25 million, next year will be another 22 or so million (I think the next generation systems are not going to "fly off of shelves") so that would put it at 100 million units in 5 years. Figure another 35 million in years 6 and 7 and then it tappers off with roughly 20 million at the end of it's life. Even when they come out with a next gen Switch the original Switch will still be in demand because of it's library.

This isn't a normal console and Nintendo will be in no hurry to replace it, just a couple more refreshes and price cuts.



Nintendo with the Switch: