Not only that, there is also no replacement for the PS Vita. Vita actually sold quite a bit of Software and because there is no replacement that audience has started to transition to the Switch.
2014
- Playstation Vita sold 1.16M hardware and 5.14M units of physical software
- Playstation 4 sold 924K hardware and 2.26M units of physical software
- Playstation 3 sold 445K hardware and 7.75M units of physical software
2015
- Playstation Vita sold 1M hardware and 5M units of physical software
- Playstation 4 sold 1.27M hardware and 4.97M units of physical software
- Playstation 3 sold 197K hardware and 4.25M units of physical software
2016
- Playstation Vita sold 849K hardware and 4.86M units of physical software
- Playstation 4 sold 1.81M hardware and 8.5M units of physical software
- Playstation 3 sold 47K hardware and 1.62M units of physical software
2017
- Playstation Vita sold 344К hardware and 2.08M units of physical software
- Playstation 4 sold 1.93M hardware and 9.98M units of physical software
- Playstation 3 sold 15K hardware and 225К units of physical software
2018
- Playstation Vita sold 181К hardware and 1.08M units of physical software
- Playstation 4 sold 1.69M hardware and 10.53M units of physical software
2019
- Playstation Vita sold 37К hardware and 303K units of physical software
- Playstation 4 sold 1.19M hardware and 8.57M units of physical software
Hardware Playstation Ecosystem Hardware(2014-2019):
- 2016 - 2.7M
- 2014 - 2.52M
- 2015 - 2.46M
- 2017 - 2.28M
- 2018 - 1.87M
- 2019 - 1.22M
2016 was the peak for Sony in Japan post-PS4 launch. I think PS4 will see a decline and sell around 900K this year. While the PS5 will probably sell somewhere around 500K for 2020. So we are looking at around 1.4M, a slight improvement over 2019 but 2021 will be even less unless Sony drops the price of the PS4 by 50%.
Software Playstation Ecosystem Hardware(2014-2019):
- 2014 - 15.15M
- 2016 - 14.98M
- 2015 - 14.22M
- 2017 - 12.28M
- 2018 - 11.61M
- 2019 - 8.87M
Hence Playstation will have a very hard time breaking over 10M units of physical software in the coming years. Last time Playstation console sold over 10M units of physical software we saw the biggest launch on the Playstation system Monster Hunter World if we look back the last time a game has sold that much on the Playstation ecosystem it was in 2010 when Monster Hunter 3 launched on the PSP. I also don't think it's a coincidence that Software sales have slowed down on the Playstation ecosystem after the Switch was released and the Vita was no longer relevant, with no portable Sony actually abandoned around 1/3 of their audience. Playstation Vita sold 18.46M units of Software in the 5 year period, this market is mostly going to transition to Switch or disappear. This is one of the reasons I expect that the Switch to sell far more hardware the 3DS in Japan, these AA Portable publishers have dedicated audiences that once transitioned buy a lot of software.
Nintendo Ecosystem Hardware Sales(2014-2019):
- 2017 - 5.23M
- 2019 - 4.68M
- 2018 - 4.04M
- 2014 - 3.79M
- 2015 - 3.00M
- 2016 - 2.26M
In terms of Nintendo, we are expecting them to hit their peak year in 2020. Currently, the peak year in the past 6 is the launch of the Switch which coincided with a strong year for 3DS Hardware. I would also expect next year for Nintendo to hit >5M hardware sales.
Nintendo Ecosystem Software Sales(2014-2019):
- 2014 - 26.47M
- 2015 - 22.06M
- 2017 - 19.82M
- 2019 - 17.06M
- 2016 - 16.80M
- 2018 - 16.31M
Nintendo has also seen a drop in its software sales that can be correlated with the subpar 3rd Party support in the past three and a half years. The top-selling 3rd Party game remains Minecraft. Yo-Kai went from selling 5M units of software per year to less than 500K. The last Monster Hunter game launched on the Nintendo ecosystem was Monster Hunter XX in 2017 which sold 2M units across the two platforms. Kingdom Hearts and Final Fantasy games skipped the Switch.
Based on Animal Crossing: New Horizon launching and probably doing close to 8M sales for 2020, this year will be the highest total since 2014, it's also very likely that we would see over >25M units of software sold on the Switch. Beating 2014 will be very difficult but not out of the question.
Last edited by noshten - on 21 July 2020
