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I don't think there motion controls will be too big. For 3 reasons
1 It doesn't have an attach rate of 100%.
2 Not too many casual games to go with the motion controls, and to compete with nintendo in the casual area. Nintendo already has a big expansive of casual games.
3 Most projects that utilize motion controls will most likely be on the wii. This mean less people will have a motive to buy the 360 mote.