Looks like the response that we've been waiting for all year is upon us now. They simply waited until they had favourable conditions to show the cards they have in their hands. This is make or break time for the Xbox360. This is not the time to make predictions on the Xbox360s fate, we really have to see what they are bringing to the table at E3 this year. This E3 and the next 6 months are critical for the Xbox360 as any momentum gained or lost from q3-q4 this year will determine the ultimate success of the platform perhaps until the end of this cycle and beyond. No prediction for the success or failure of the Xbox360 can be made without first seeing the cards that Microsoft has in their deck.
As Microsoft is in a position of asyncronous information, it is foolish to dismiss the moves that they have made and will make over this year as they see a much bigger piece of the picture than anyone here does. The interesting thing is what they do with this information that really matters.
- If they see blu ray as important, then they will release an Elite with blu ray inside, if they don't then they won't. Its their actions that will indicate the current importance of this movie platform to consumers somewhat. We certainly have heard a lot of rumors regarding this change.
- They seem to be implementing a different approach this year than last, especially when you consider the games that are becoming available towards the end of the year. However this would have been a strategy laid down years ago. You simply do not turn on a dime with regard to pushing good/great exclusives out from one genre to another. There is no desperation in the games they are releasing exclusively this year, they had this planned at least a 18 months if not two years or more back. It seems like a deliberate action, take a lead in the first person shooter genre then move on to the RPG genre with the aim of dominating that as well. Microsoft seems to like to work in threes, so it seems Mass Effect 1/2 - Too Human and Fable 2 are their big push for the WRPG genre and Lost odyssey, Tales of vesperia and Last remnant seem to be their push in the JRPG genre.
- Motion controls will have been out for 2 years, so if assuming they started implementing plans for their own control scheme along those lines straight away, this will be about the earliest they can release anything with appropriate support. So perhaps for Nintendo this will be the first time a competitor has attempted to compete directly with them this generation on their home turf. It is foolish to discount a Microsoft counter-attack as destined to fail because as 2nd movers they have the advantage of hindsight so they can release a better implementation of motion controls and they also have their massive advantage in the PC arena to leverage. These games include - Will wrights creations - The Sims/Spore, their own Starlancer/Freelancer space sim - the niche but still viable adventure games genre - practically any Pop-cap/equivelent makers game, perhaps in a compilation. They also have their very own Mech Warrior franchise which is reasonably big in its own right. Even beyond all this they can really start getting all the educational and kids games which are solely mouse driven and do a straightforward port. They can cover all areas of the market with a motion controller, all they need to do is pump enough money into getting the games out there. They have the money. Im not saying they WILL do it, what im saying is that they could do it better than most people here would give them credit for.
The only question now really is. "What are Microsofts goals for the Xbox360?" They are sitting uniquely on a position of success or failure. These next 6 months, and especially E3 will have a huge impact on the future of this console. They have 3 SKUs to position in the market, perhaps they will move to distinguish them further than a price/feature scale. My personal belief is that one possible change will be an Xmote Arcade a cheaper Pro with a larger HDD and wireless and an Elite with Blu ray would do just that.
Tease.
