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Xenoblade X is only available to less than 15m Wii U owners. Even if they're just gonna do a direct port without improving much of anything, it'd still be great if more people had the chance to play it.

I'd say have Xenoblade X in 2021 as a nice thow-in for the release schedule, and then sometime 2022-2023 they can plan the release for their new game. They can always just outsource for the port, though I'm reading that it's apparently not an easy fit for Switch.

I wouldn't expect Xenoblade 3 on Switch. That'll probably be an early title for Switch 2, though hopefully it'll get more dev time than Xenoblade 2 got.