Next gen PS5/XB1SX sales ratio will look the same as this gen's. Huge changes in console marketshare require huge changes in the industry.

[DonFerrari]

LudicrousSpeed said:

DonFerrari said:
Ludicrous how can you in one post say that the games Sony releases get a big discount and a lot of sales is on bundles and on another post talk about the sales being frontloaded and not see how both contradicts your try to put their revenue down?

Explain where the contradiction is, please. Fact: Games are typically front loaded in terms of sales. There are exceptions but they don't really apply to MicroSony. Fact: MicroSony games get cut in price soon after release. Remember the BOTW vs Horizon debates of whatever year that was? Interestingly, BOTW not only sold more but it still retails for $60 plus has a paid expansion. Horizon meanwhile has an MSRP of like $17 for the complete entire version of the game, expansion included, but you can find codes for the game for $5-10 on various key sites. God of War? Already $20 or less. GT Sport? Already $20 or less. Uncharted 4? Same thing. Days Gone? $30-40. By Christmas LoU2 and Ghost will have a lowered MSRP.

Sure I'm well aware that the games get discounted fast and are frontloaded, that is why I averaged the ticket at 45 USD.

It's blatantly obvious that the $60 for 10,000,000 sales in one year is bogus because it's not $60 in revenue, and they don't sell 10,000,000 in one year. Also LOL @100k from bundles. Every BF PS4 bundle has sold millions. Also bear in mind I am not saying GamePass would have more revenue. There are problems with the math on that side too. For example MS has to pay these publishers for games like Streets of Rage 4 and Red Dead 2. I am just pointing out that the math that the user presented as so ironclad and irrefutable was actually nonsense.

BF Bundles are done a lot later than launch of the games, which we already agreed is where the bulk of the games are sold. So again it is taken in consideration, and it isn't a single bundle and it isn't only bundles sold and "millions" are only if you sum every year, because on any given year it isn't over 1M really. So you could if you want discount 500k-1M sales if you wanted to be rigorous.

But yes just put 10M sales at 60USD profit is wrong (sure some games will do even more than average 60 because of DLC, MTX, Luxury editions, etc, but that certainly isn't the norm).

DonFerrari said:
A 10M seller from Sony is likely selling about 6M on 1st month at full price and no more than 100k bundles (just look at the HW spikes) and even full life it probably would have a 45 or more average price sold (discounted bundles already) and on that since it is 1st party we would need to discount only the retailer part on the 50% retail sales versus digital. So on 10M sold that would be 5M on retail for 15 bucks or 150M out of the 450M made, so we would be looking at least 300M made by Sony (I would bet it is even more) besides DLC, MTX, etc.

That's great and all but I don't really care. You're just proving my point. It will sell huge at the start and then taper off and then get discounted and bring in even less revenue. Sony would bring in between $34-40 of those retail copies depending on retailer but then you factor in distribution, marketing etc so just like the GamePass subs aren't all profit, video game sales aren't either. And this is where we reach the point that debating it is a waste of time because we have zero concrete numbers on this for either side. But I'll reiterate again, the math done was doodoo.

OK