Otter said:
I think I'm the only who suggested a holiday 2021 launch, mainly for BOTW2/Metroid, and starving off interest which would otherwise go to PS5/SX (not essential as Nintendo can coexist but good to increase third party support which is one reason why Nintendo systems have short lives imo). Could be a tad early but I'd just say again, if the audience isn't ready for a successor in 2021 then they aren't ready for a Switch Pro either (unless it's a cheap switch tv) Throw a meek upgrade late into the gen for what? Market it as the new shiny thing at full $299 (or more). It slows down the decline but things still decline and it doesn't secure another 5 years of software purchases or investment in the platform/brand (both from consumers but also from developers). Meanwhile you've just got 15m people who were obviously interested in a new shiny device to rebuy a platform they'll stop using in 2 years, instead of investing them in your future eco system. Nice in the short term, risky longterm. When you actually release your successor 1/2 years later, they're not inclined to upgrade. The Pro upgrades make sense for PS4 because it will have an 8 year life span and a decent gap between Pro and PS5 (4years). Can the Switch do that? We've seen several times in the past that Nintendo has had a massive peak (imo 2020 is it) and 3 years later no one cares about their offerings. Both on the old platform and whatever new platform they're about to release. Maybe it's sinply about software and having the right titles but I think maintaining momentum in hardware is also a factor. If I'm not mistaken the most successful console transitions (PS1> PS2 & PS3>PS4) were all replaced the year after their sales peaked. Although things would be different as there is no need to "replace" the system. Hopefully I'm wrong and Switch can show legs and we see software releases which continues to compete with its current mega sellers. Which is another thing we dont see from Nintendo, maybe Switch can break that curse. When all is said and done, many PS4 best sellers will be from the year it's about to be "replaced" FFVII, TLOU2, Cyberpunk, Modern warfare. You look at Nintendo platforms and you never see such a healthy spread across a systems life. |
This is just like a pile of wrong to be honest.
What in this world could make you think if the audience isn't ready for a successor to the Switch in 2021 (seriously who in the world would want a Switch 2 next year right in the middle of Switch' lifecycle??!) then the audience isn't ready for a very standard revision of a Nintendo portable? That makes ZERO sense. Nintendo always does new versions of their portables. They already have the Lite for Switch, so we know they are sticking to their normal strategy. It would be standard operating procedure for them to release an upgraded version sometime soon. Which is obviously a completely different thing than cutting off several years of the Switch's lifespan when it is the most popular system in the world by a long shot in order to prematurely bring in a very lackluster successor next year.
I don't even understand what kind of logic could lead you to assert such a ridiculous idea. I feel like the only way you could possibly think this way is if you haven't realized that the Switch is absolutely killing it and you are still suffering from the "Switch won't sell much" idea that some people had just before the Switch launched.
Switch owners or possible Switch owners are definitely not thinking about a successor coming out (other than idle speculation) and won't start thinking about it for probably a couple more years. Right now we're thinking about when we're gonna get the second round of games that came out early (BotW2, another 3D Mario), when we're gonna get the first round of a bunch of IP (Metroid, Bayonetta, Pikmin, Paper Mario, possibly Star Fox, 2D Mario, etc) and a whole bunch of other games. The Switch has plenty of years left that we are wondering what the next few years of Switch games are gonna be. If you want to start seriously talking about a Switch successor on the horizon get back on here in two years, at that point a Switch successor will indeed only be a year or two away.
Last edited by Slownenberg - on 09 May 2020
