Oh wow I didn't even realize the 16 million for pokemon in holiday quarter was shipped not sold, while AC 13.4 million in 6 weeks is sold not shipped. Anyway, considering Pokemon's second quarter was only 1.3 million and seeing that AC was still selling just under 300k/week in japan alone by I guess that 6th week it seems likely AC will be start quickly closing the 4 million unit gap that currently exists. Still might take until end of year for AC to pass Pokemon when they both go over 20 million but I don't think Pokemon has any chance of beating AC long term.
Pokemon 17.37 and AC 11.77 through the 1st quarter. I could see Pokemon doing something like 18.5, 19.5, 21 for the last three quarters of this year, while AC i could see doing 16.5, 19, 22.
The five weeks after the first for AC sales were around 1.7m if you look at the weekly Japanese sales and compare them to the five week total after the first it shows at this point the majority of sales are coming from that one region as it's like 300k a week which we know from Famitsu estimates is what it has been selling in Japan. This suggests that with WW regions ACNH may have been a lot more front loaded compared to prior games in the series which poses the possibility of the game's legs being a lot more dependent on Japan in the long run than thought.
In comparison SW/SH shipped more but the added shipments in the quarter suggests the 16m has now been sold through, the game was the second best selling non new release after MK8D despite people suggesting that it was dropping off in the charts quicker than expected. In Japan it still sold 310K in the quarter meaning WW regions it did 1m showing it's legs are more across different regions in comparison which could make things difficult in the long run for ACNH to close the 4m gap as it's seemingly falls on Japan at this point.