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Darwinianevolution said:

I do wonder, if anyone could mess it up, what would be the most probable fuck up coming from each of them? Not the most damaging, mind you, just the one with the most chances of actually happening.

Like the OP here, I think Sony's "most probable fuck up" would be hardware related:

1) maybe they used RDNA1 instead of RDNA2 architecture (MS seems to have used the later), meaning their chip could only be produced in 7nm instead of 7nm+ (afaik these processes are not compatible and require a redesign) and could result in a worse $ per performance ratio and in the end a significantly slower console for a compareable price as the competition

2) they could "cheap out" on RAM and come in with too little for a long gen

3) their system design might still be much more focussed on a small form factor than adequate cooling, so customers have to deal with noisy and possibly more faulty machines

4) Sony's custom SSD solution might not be expandable (games won't work from an USB HDD, both the port and the disk would be waaaay too slow), while MS's could be via a CFExpress port on the XSX

from the software side the only Sony fuck up that seems "probable" is that they release without a big AAA game from one of their premiere studios and that these games are more than 6 months off