Switch can't/won't outsell DS because...........

[The_Liquid_Laser]

Shadow1980 said:

[...]
However, we do know the following two facts:

1) The Switch's YoY increases have been declining and, regardless of the reasons, Nintendo systems experiencing a multi-quarter growth period see said growth slow and then flip over into YoY declines, which initiates the post-peak period of the system's life.

[...]

I believe this depends on whether you are looking at US/Americas data or Worldwide data. 

Switch shipments for first 9 months of fiscal year

Apr. 1 to Dec 31	Americas	YoY % increase	World	YoY % increase
2017	4.74		12.13
2018	5.8	22%	14.48	19%
2019	6.85	18%	17.74	23%

The YoY increase was actually greater for the first 9 months of the current fiscal year.  Not only has Switch not peaked but it's growth rate is increasing too.  The Americas tell a different story.  One might guess Switch is slowing down in the Americas but not the rest of the world.  But what I really think is that Smash Bros is simply really popular in the US and that makes 2018 proportionally higher in the Americas compared to the worldwide total.  Either way, Switch sales have most definitely not peaked nor are they anywhere close.

Shadow1980 said: 
"And as for the total size of the market, that's such a nebulous quantity as to be useless. After three generations, we can surmise that the total combined global market for PlayStation & Xbox is in the 170-180M range, something that's been pretty damn consistent so far (even the final WW total for combined PS4+XBO sales will likely end up in that range). But when it comes to Nintendo, they've been highly volatile. They went from the GameCube (bad sales) to the Wii (good sales) to the Wii U (bad sales) and now to the Switch (good sales). Even their handhelds have not shown much consistency. And this is all before taking into account regional differences in sales. And counting the home console and old handheld market separately is even less useful. We have only a vague idea what the overlap between Nintendo home console owners and PS/Xbox owners are, and we have even less of an idea what the overlap between what, say, Wii and DS owners were, or DS owners and PS/Xbox owners."

There are lots of industries out there where markets are actually measured and analyzed.  Come to these forums and people act like it's voodoo.

The home console market is pretty easy to measure because of Generation 6.  PS2 + XBox + Gamecube = 158m + 25m + 22m = 205m.  Now looking at Generation 8 we are far enough along to get good estimates, PS4 + XB1 + WiiU = 130m + 50m + 14m = 194m.  The market size hasn't changed much (net) since Generation 6.  The Wii temporarily gained and lost a lot of customers, which might confuse people.  But comparing Generation 6 and 8 there is not much change.  The handheld market is really easy to measure 3DS + Vita = 75m + 16m = 91m.

If you combine the home and handheld market that is a potential of 285m (194m + 91m) sales.  Given, I do know there is some overlap, but it isn't so big of a deal as people say, since it is common for a household to own more than one handheld.  I.e. a household that owns a PS4 and a 3DS can easily buy 2 Switches as well.  However, lets just take the most conservative case anyway which is that there is 100% overlap between the home and handheld market and each household only buys one system.  Even in that case Switch sells to the whole 91m handheld market plus to some percentage of the remaining 103m (194m - 91m) in the home market.  Even in the extremely conservative case Switch has the potential to pass the DS.

That is why it is really too early to say it's impossible at this point.  I personally have reason to believe that it is not just possible, but the likely result.  However, I am just trying to present the idea that it is possible here.  The market size indicates it is possible.  And the current sales data won't give a strong indication who is right until after Switch has hit it's peak year.  What is clear is that Switch sales are still accelerating.  It's too early to call based on data alone.