When will the switch outsell the ps4?

[TruckOSaurus]

victor83fernandes said:

TruckOSaurus said:

How will the PS4 reach 150 million consoles sold exactly? It was about 41 million consoles away at the end of 2019 and last year it sold 14.7m. The January 2020 numbers are at 20% below 2019 numbers and the release of the PS5 will definitely affect its end of year numbers.

Shipped at the end of 2019: 108.9m
Shipped at the end of 2020: 120m (about 11m, that would be only a 25% drop, it could be sharper the PS3 dropped 31% in the year PS4 was released)
Shipped at the end of 2021: 125.5m(about 5.5m, that would be a 50% drop,for reference the PS3 dropped 59% the year following the PS4's release)

The way I see it, the road to 130m is very doable but 150m is out of the question.

I can bet you on this if you want, it will reach 150 million easily just like the ps2 reached 155million, sales aligned the ps4 is outselling the ps2 WITHOUT AN OFFICIAL PRICE DROP.

Sony just needs to drop the price to 150dollars and the thing will easily sell to people who cant afford new consoles, or people who already have a ps4 but gets defective.

And are we forgetting the biggest ps4 game ever is still to be released this year? Game of year 2020 will most likely be Last of us 2, a ps4 exclusive, if that together with a permanent price drop, doesn't sell consoles I don't know what will.

Also, you counted 2021? do you even realize that's only 1 year after ps5 launches? Go check how many years the ps1 and ps2 sold after the new consoles came.

One more thing, black Friday sales will be only current gen consoles, not the new ones which most likely will be out of stock. A cheap bundle with Last of us 2 will sell a lot, specially to PC people who do not want to buy a 450dollars console + 70 dollars game = 520 dollars while they could buy it for 180 dollars just for that game.

I'm willing to bet you a year of avatar control that the PS4 will never reach 150 million units sold. The PS4 is on a downward curve and it's not going to have the kind of post successor sales that the PS2 had.