Shadow1980 said:
NPD says it's Gen 8. Nintendo agrees with them. Wikipedia considers that good enough to put the Switch in the page for Gen 8 consoles. That's infinitely more authoritative than what any individual gamer or community of gamers has to say on the matter. Besides, the Switch launched closer to the PS4 & XBO than to the PS5 & XSX (less then 3 years, 4 months vs. at least 3 years, 8 months), and will almost certainly spend the majority of its primary lifespan (meaning pre-replacement) having competed against the PS4 & XBO. The longest gap between Nintendo consoles has been six years, meaning we realistically shouldn't expect the Switch 2 (or whatever replaces the Switch) to be out any later than 2023, at which point the PS5 & XSX will be at most only 3 years old (only 2 years, 4 months old assuming March 2023 for the Switch's successor). And 35M in the U.S. is pretty damn good. The GBA sold over 35M in the U.S., and the Switch is lagging behind it. The Switch is outpacing the PS4 somewhat (for now), and the PS4 will likely end up at around 35M. The only three home consoles to exceed 40M in the U.S. have been the PS2 (46.7M), 360 (43.2M), and Wii (41.8M). The Switch is lagging behind the PS2 and Wii, and will eventually lag behind the 360 (look at the charts I've already posted to see what the Switch is facing in the future vs. the 360). Unless it experiences continued growth (unlikely without some kind of major stimulative factor) and/or has some absolutely insane legs, it probably isn't passing 40M in the U.S. I did once think 40M was a possibility, but only if it sold 7.5M in 2019. That didn't happen since Pokemon S&S and the Lite didn't move enough hardware in the holidays to do so, putting it at only 6.5M for the year. 35M is a much more reasonable estimate for the time being, though I'm willing to revise it upward depending on how things go for it this year. Even just tying the PS4 would put in a tie for #4 best-selling console ever in the U.S.
Assuming MS doesn't make some colossal blunder this year like they did in 2013 with the XBO and Sony still plays it safe, I think the PS5 and XSX will be in a dead heat in the U.S. The XBO has sold only 14.5% fewer units in the U.S. than the PS4 so far, a ratio that hasn't changed substantially over the course of the generation. That's a loss, but not some massive gulf, and was closer than the 360-PS3 gap. The PS3 sold nearly 38% fewer units than the 360 lifetime. Sony's screw-ups at the start of Gen 7 hurt the PS3 a lot more than MS's screw-ups in 2013 hurt the XBO. It's a testament to how Xbox-friendly the NA market is.
Him? Engage in conjecture or make baseless statements? Surely you jest. /s
Even though the Switch will dominate 2020, hardware sales figures are still useful information as it gives us a better idea of the Switch's longer-term trajectory as it approaches mid-life, as well as what kind of legs we can expect from the PS4 & XBO now that they're in the terminal decline phase of their lives. People interested in sales data will turn out for that information if we continue to get it. |
Why waste time writting all that? The switch is the only 9th gen system and 35m is too low compared to what it will actually sell.
