Yep I pretty much agree. 2021 outperforming 2019 as a couple have suggested seems like a fantasy.
I know that both of you are following some sort of mathematical model, but you have no idea why you are even using these models or why they usually work. These models have underlying assumptions like a company's strategy, execution and the current market conditions. If you don't take these assumptions into account, or realize when they change in a significant way, then you are going to keep being surprised when the Switch keeps selling better than you are projecting. There is more to projecting future sales than just studying the data.