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nuckles87 on 20 December 2019
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goopy20 said:
nuckles87 said:

I think people weary of how Switch will fair after the release of the next gen are missing a few key things:

1. The transition to the 9th generation is likely to be very slow. It took years for most third parties to stop releasing their big games cross-generationally. The first *big* third party game to release exclusively on the 8th gen was Arkham Knight, in June of 2015, a year and-a-half into the new generation. In the context of this generation, that would be June 2022.

2. The fact that this gen will likely be backwards compatible with the 8th gen, will only encourage publishers to want to use the Xbox One/PS4 as the base console, with the more powerful consoles pursuing better frame rates and resolutions, like 120 FPS and native 8K, at least early on.

3. Software tools have increasingly focused on scaleability, and with the success of the Switch and the massive existing userbase for PS4/Xbox One, that will likely only encourage developers to further focus on that in the future. Scaleability is how ports of Doom, Wolfenstein, and many other high-end games made it to Switch.

And finally: The Switch will likely be receiving it’s own full-blown successor within the next few years, potentially as early as holiday 2021 (though somewhere in 2022 is more likely). Portable tech has already come a long way sense the Tegra X1, and a new model will do a lot to help the Switch catch up with the other 9th generation consoles. I would imagine a future Switch will be capable of PS4 (or at least Xbox One) levels of graphical fidelity.

Many developers will be eager to move on to the next generation, but I think most publishers will put a leash on that, especially given the development costs that come with increased graphical fidelity. Outside of the first party publishers, economics will almost certainly slow down the transition. If these consoles are expensive as rumored, that’ll slow adoption from consumers, and third parties aren’t going to be enthusiastic about moving away from a console install base that collectively surpasses 200 million, to cater exclusively to a userbase that’ll be a fraction the size for it’s first few years and way more expensive to develop for.

That's not really true. Sure in the first year we will probably see a year of cross-platform titles. However, looking at current gen we already had AC Unity skipping ps3/360 in 2014 and in 2015 almost all major titles from the big publishers skipped last gen consoles like: Batman AK, Fallout4, Witcher3, MK X, Just Cause 3, Wolfenstein etc. 

Obviously when the next gen consoles hit the market it will take away some interest from the Switch as people just love the newest toy. Also, like I said the Switch is currently a pretty powerful handheld that, while not as powerful as current gen consoles, still can run most of the AAA multiplatform games. Next gen that difference will be a lot bigger and Nintendo probably will need to launch a more powerful successor to get any support.

But that's the thing. If Nintendo wants to stay on the handheld path, it will probably be 3 or 4 years into the next gen console cycle before they can launch a handheld that comes close to these next gen specs. By then, the ps5 especially, will already have like a 60m lead. And while the next gen Switch will no doubt sell great when it does eventually launch, it will never be able to catch up.

I do tend to forget about Unity, because that was released alongside a separate game that DID come to the last gen consoles, so Ubisoft clearly saw them as worth supporting. Unity was also something of an exception amongst the major multi platform games (not to mention in terms of development it was definitely a rush job).

Those other games you mentioned all released either a few months before or after Arkham Knight, which I mentioned as the “first” exclusively 8th gen game, so my point still stands, I think.

I also don’t think Nintendo will need to wait THAT long for a next-gen Switch. Remember, the Switch’s Tegra X1 is technically a 2015 chip, so by 2021 that chip will already be pretty old, and mobile technology will have advanced significantly since then. Nintendo also doesn’t need to release a handheld that comes close to next gen specs. The Switch has been able to keep up pretty well despite with the current gen despite being a whole gen behind, thanks to advances in software development and developers focusing on making their software scaleable. Bare minimum, Nintendo should be able to release a Switch in 2021/2022 that is at least capable of keeping up with the next gen as the Switch is capable of keeping up with the current gen.

Last edited by nuckles87 - on 20 December 2019