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thismeintiel on 15 December 2019
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Mnementh said:
thismeintiel said:

(1) Personally, I think this year was Switch's peak. At least this fiscal year ending March 2020.  They have a $199 SKU, now, and have released pretty much all of their big hitters. (2) The reason next gen may hamper it is that it will be getting fewer 3rd party titles because of the power discrepancy, (3) and it won't be seen as the new toy on the block.  Of course, like I stated, it will mostly be because it will be getting long in the tooth and will have fewer big releases.  These things don't sell forever.  And a Nintendo peaking late in its life just goes against their own console history.  Just like people thought that the Wii was going to easily pass PS2 with how it was selling for the first 3 years, but didn't even come close, 55M+ short. 

(4) Also, that would be an easy bet for you to win.  Of course the Switch will outsell them in 2021.  They'll be new consoles with smaller libraries.  Even the popular PS4 shipped just 15.4M in its first full year.  If the PS5 is $499, the Switch should be able beat it by 3M-5M.  If Sony works some kind of magic and can get it out for $399, Switch should still beat it by 1M or so.  2022 is when the new consoles will start to hit their stride, and Switch, naturally, will still be declining.

(1) While it is theoretically possible that the Switch sells weaker next year, no signs are pointing towards that. Remember the PS4 in it's peak year started to have weaker holiday sales, indicating the next year sales might cool down. No such sign for Switch so far.

(2) The Switch already doesn't get all the third-party titles. Exactly that was the reason why the Switch was declared DOA in 2017 in this exact forum.

(3) Well, I constantly heard over the last two and a half years that PS4 and XB1 are more powerful than Switch, so it never was the new toy.

(4) You assume the Switch peaks naturally in 2019 so that this will be two years after peak, and you think PS5 and XBX offer something so enticing, that it drives people away from Switch. This in combination should make it easy for Sony and MS to outsell Switch in 2021.

1.  We don't have concrete numbers for other regions, yet.  However, we do know that despite it having a $199 SKU and Pokemon, it is having weaker sales in Japan this December.  Just this past week it was down ~90K YOY.  Will other regions be able to make up for this, will they be flat, or will some be slightly down, too?  We will have to see when Nintendo releases its quarterly earnings. 

2.  Switch doesn't get them all, but it has had pretty good 3rd party support.  10x better than Wii U had.  But, I have already said, this won't be the major reason it will start dropping.

3. It was still the new toy on the block, even if some (including myself here) refused to see it.  It had all the charm of the Wii, but was also portable.

4. Has nothing to do with them stealing customers, as the Switch isn't going to plummet.  It will be in a slow downward trend and PS5 and XBSX will start out slower, like all consoles do.  Especially if they end up being $499.