the-pi-guy said:
>You can't use how dreadful an initial product is to excuse it or how poor it was implemented Yes you can. A product like TV, computer, cell phones become successful based off things like usefulness, practicality. If computers were never smaller than an entire kitchen, they wouldn't be found in practically every home. They became successful after they became useful, convenient devices. If you don't think VR will ever be successful that's fine. That's a reasonable opinion to have. If you think that past failures are somehow indicative of future failures, that's at best conjecture. In my opinion, VR is still around 8-10 or so years before the technology will be good enough for a mainstream market. And I say that as someone who loves VR right now. >TV's have taken off at an unprecedented rate compared to VR. 30 years later, still niche. TVs were still niche for a couple decades. That's despite being a relatively easy technology. And there were even a few people who thought TV would fail. Motion controls took 40 years between their first use and when they first because successful. If you want to bring in that 'VR headset' from 51 years ago, it'd only be fair to bring up really old computers. That took several decades from first being invented to just having a reasonable personal computer and then a few more decades before becoming mainstream. But yes, VR is a failure because it is lagging behind the TV. |
There was actually a VR device before that but I omitted it because of it's size. It looked more like an 90's arcade game housing that you put your head in so I understand your point about practicality and I'm not omitting the one from 68. Form factor is quite similar.
It's not that I don't think it won't be successful, I just don't think it will be mainstream. You could argue that it is successful now and given what evidence provided, I may agree. Especially when it comes to revenue and profit generated. That's what the VR manufactures are concerned about.
Mobile phones were first handheld in 1973. They then became widely available mid 80's.
TV's came in poor implemented form in late 1920's and hit the mainstream about 15-20 years after that during WW2.
VR simply isn't indicating to me that it's going to take off. I don't see why it gets the concession of yet another 8-10 years to become viable for mainstream.
Edit: Motion controls I don't think really count. Wii did well. WiiU didn't. OG Kinect rode the wave. Kinect 2 bottomed out and smacked it's head on the sand. It happened but it hasn't been continuous like other examples given... Well, that I'm aware of.
