Is ARMS a failure, or not?

[Nuvendil]

We can actually calculate the real profitability of the game pretty easily. As a first party, they make around $35 on every physical sale, nearly $60 on every digital sale. If we assume it had a typical digital ratio for a Switch game at that time and ballpark profits per sale at around..$42 a sale for the period it was 60 - which it was for almost it's entire time that we were receiving numbers - and then assume that drops a bit for the latter part to, say, $35 even...I mean the game pulled in easily over 80 mil. Now we can't know the games total budget and cost to market, but I would be astounded and flabbergasted if it was half that.

So financially, absolutely not, it was definitely not a failure. It was honestly a resounding success for an unusual take on a niche genre. 3D fighters are already small time games before you start messing with the foundations. I mean, look at Pokken. That game caries the Pokemon license AND some of the Tekken pedigree and it didn't take off sales wise.

As for other goals, well Nintendo's conduct around the game shows that it was at least fairly successful in their eyes. It received post release content and support similar to the first Splatoon. But it hasn't gotten as much as some other franchises did on their first outing. As for whether or not it is franchise-starting levels of success...that depends on Nintendo's goals with it. If they were just looking for good numbers for what it was in terms of genre, then yeah, it's probably that successful. 3D Fighters are the definition of mid tier games, Arms fits that bill perfectly. If they were looking for a Smash kind of impact, a game that defies genre sales limitations to become a juggernaut, probably not. It's all relative and hard to tell. Pokken did pretty good for a 3D fighter despite it's quirks and limits and Nintendo has shown no interest in continuing with a sequel at all. Meanwhile Xenoblade didn't cross 1 mil and X barely crossed 900k if it did at all, and yet they pressed on to XC2 where the series finally found it's footing.

So we'll just have to wait and see. People dismissing it entirely are being very hasty and premature though. Nintendo has numerous times been willing to hammer away at a franchise or concept they believe in until it finds success. Nintendo also has shown interest in preserving franchises because of added variety. Already mentioned XC, but there's also Fire Emblem, which they gave second, third, and fourth chances before it became a bigger franchise. Pikmin has three entries going on four despite never being a juggernaut (and incidentally ARMS has outsold each Pikmin game). Shoot, they've kept Fatal Frame alive despite that IP most likely never having been profitable for anyone who has ever held it.