haxxiy said: It's very unlikely there'll be more than 40 - 44 CUs on next generation consoles even if the die size is around 400 mm2 and they take I/O out of it. These Radeon cards spit blood above 1600 - 1700 MHz, and we've discussed elsewhere how power consumption influences everything in design, including up to consumer-class product rules and licencing, which are a very significant dealbreaker. Not to mention the costs... (edit - corrected number of CUs) |
That's a lot of random numbers you got in your post. First I believe both Xbox and PS5 will have 44CU's and if AMD made a 48CU's discrete Gpu I expect that to have a die size of 270-280mm2.
We know from Flute leaked that Sony very likely has 8mb GameCache instead of 32MB found in 3700x, this reduces the Zen2 from 70mm2 to 40mm2.
Your numbers for RT+tensors cores are completely off, the TU104 (geforce 2070) adds 35mm2 for a 445mm2 die size gpu. I'm assuming the RT stuff will add between 10-20mm2 to our discrete gpu so 280-300mm2 now.
https://www.reddit.com/r/nvidia/comments/baaqb0/rtx_adds_195mm2_per_tpc_tensors_125_rt_07/
We can look at PS4, PS4 pro and Xbox one X Soc's die sizes to make an estimate.
PS4, 212mm2 discrete gpu + 50mm2 cpu = 348mm2 (86mm2 wasted die space)
PS4 pro, 220-230mm2 gpu + 25mm2 cpu = 320mm2 (65-75mm2 wasted die space)
Xbox one X, 270-290mm2 gpu + 25mm2 cpu = 360mm2 (45-65mm2 wasted die space)
Xbox one X gpu we can't do perfect estimate, radeon 480 have a die size of 232mm2 and 36CU's, Xbox one X 44CU's but 4 disable, a 384-bit bus and fabbed at TSMC 16nm+ instead of 14nm Glofo/samsung. Tsmc 16nm+ is less dense and will add 8-9% die area.
Let's do next-gen Socs 40mm2 cpu + 280-290mm2 gpu (hardware RT included) = 370-380mm2, I'm assuming 50mm2 wasted die because of another shrink. I think both Sony/Microsoft will use tsmc 7nm+ this shrinks the SOC 20% but I don't expect perfect scaling.
370-380mm2 x 0.85 = 314.5-323mm2
Edit: Forgot you mentioned clock speed, my post is long enough already, I don't agree with you. I expect the clock speed on the gpu to be from 1790-1899mhz.
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