Intrinsic said:
Thats because you are basing your calculations off the wrong constants. Look at it this way instead. Forget whatever one GPU or the other has achieved and how, instead look at the individual compute units and their clocks. So start with the PS4 OG. What does that tell you? Exactly doubling the GPU Compute units should theoretically give you 3.6TF. Assuming the clocks stays identical. However, because the GPU has been upclocked from 800mhz to 911mhz that TF value went up from 3.6TF to 4.2TF. And this is before any architecture inprovements have been taken into account. Now lets use the XB1X as the base. XB1X = 44CU (4 deactivated)@1172mhz = 6TF (16nm) Now I am even lowballing this, because
I do not know why you are using the standards you are using for your theory, when you have very accurate data from the already existing PS4pro and XB1X to see exactly what you can expect from a direct fabrication shrink and upclock when they went from 28nm to 16nm.
As I have said before and keep saying, the next generation of consoles will not come until 7nm chip fabrication is available and maybe even mature. They will wait. But what I have just pointed out is exactly what to expect from a APU that is 360mm sq as we have in the XB1X built using the 7nm process.
Lastly, by how much do you think the system can be up-clocked? Can we go up to 1300mhz? 1500mhz? Whatever it is; just know that for every 117mhz clock increase you add an addition 1.2TF of performance. So if its clocked at `1300+mhz you are looking at a 14TF+ GPU. See why i expect it may even be as high as 15TF?
Now if we start talking discrete CPU/GPU? then its a totally different ball game. With that they could have a 300mm sq chip as the GPU alone, keep the clock locked to 1172mhz, but increase CUs from 88 to as much as 140!!! And thats how you get to ~19TF.
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CrazyGPU said:
First of all , great post. I see your point, it´s another way to see it and a good one. I will add that also, in doing what you are explaining, they can perfectly run 1/4 th of the cores and mantain compatibility with PS4 if the hardware is close enough. As they did with PS4 pro. I think this time it will be a brand new architecture. The only thing that we need to see is: if they go for premium cooler and stuff like Xbox one X, If they do, and if 7 nm is ready, they can perfectly reach 12 Teraflops as you explained up there. If they go for a PS4 pro kind of replacement, it could be 4,2Tf x 2(double the cores) = 8,4 teraflops. Let´s give a little more clock , (like 911Mhz pro / 800 MHz base = 13,9%) then you get 8,4 x 1.139% = 9,57 Teraflops. With a new architecture, probably more. Let´s give the same treatment for 12 Teraflops Xbox one X like machine. x 1.139 = 13,67 Teraflops. And the magic marketing numbers are 10, for being the first 10 Tflop machine or more than 12, that´s 2 times Xbox One X. So my first estimation in 2014 was 12-14 Tf. My actual one is 10-12 Tf, but with your calculation my old estimation can be achievable too. I still think that 15 high, it also depend on the bandwith to feed it. A wide bus translates in more power consumption. But I see your reasons now and I think is perfectly doable. I hope they get there. A 14 Tf PS5 would be 7,6 times more powerfull than original PS4. A nice jump for 4k and VR. |
Intrinsic said:
Thanks. Now about them going for the PS4pro double..... I think that is strategically impossible. Whatever the case here, we are looking at at least double the PS4pro or XB1X. Now it would just be a flat out bad business decision to double the PS4pro when we all know that MS will at the very least double the XB1X. And if we use your calculations, we are talking about at leat 9.5TF vs 13.6TF. Thats almost 3TF worth of muscle being left on the table. That would be marketing and design suicide for sony. I do agree with you though that 15TF is a little high, I mean there are a number of factors that could prevent them from pushing their designs that far... reliability and longevity being two of the most important amongst them. So its possible that even if the hardware can hit 15TF, the could settle for something like 12-13TF. But this comes down to what MS is gonna do. Neither of them is going to let the other have any meaningful performance advantage out of the gate this time around. MS knows what it cost them this gen, sony knows how it favored them. |
So in 2014 I expected that the GPU was going to be 12-14 teraflops. We didn´t know about NAVI architecture.
Then in february 2018 I thought we were going to get arround 10-12, but Intrinsic was thinking arround 12-15 based on the number of cores achivable with 7 nm.
Anyway, we now know that ps5 is going to run NAVI and good rumors point to NAVI 10, arround a RX 5700, which has arround 8 Teraflops but is 4% faster than the GCN based VEGA 64 which was 12,6 Teraflops. So we are witnessing at a machine comparable with GCN at 13 Teraflops. We were right on the performance target, but not with the core number and architecture.
On the CPU side, things look bright, it´s almost certain that we´re going to get ZEN 2+ 8 cores 16 Thread with 3.2 Ghz. That´s way better than my prediction on 2014 which was 2x PS4, but hey, Ryzen didn´t exist back then.
On the bandwith Intrinsic was right in 2018 thinking in arround 500 GBps if the NAVI 10 rumors are correct.
On The HD side, things look better than I thought, cause the SSD is confirmed and its going to be blazing fast.
Things are getting very interesting, we´ll get a PS5 with no less than 4x the CPU performance, 6 times the GPU performance and SSD.
We still have to wait for final confirmations on:
memory bandwith,
GPU and memory frequency,
main memory size,
how RAY TRACING is implemented in hardware.
most people go for 16 GB of RAM, I would like to get 24 if the machine is spected to go until 2027.
I don´t expect the highest jump of any generation, but it seems that it will be a very good machine for 4k gaming, some games will run 30 fps others at 60, but for 500 USS it will be cheaper than any high end PC.
I expect Microsoft Scarlet to be very close this time, faster or slower. But I´ll go for Sony for 2 reasons. 1st I have a high end PC with a 1070 and a 2k monitor. and 2nd I love Sony exclusives.
