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It's really difficult to say. The 360 sells software like crazy and is more supported by third parties with high quality games. But the Wii sells casual games very well, has a great first party behind it, and is the sales leader for the generation.

The thing is that while multiplatform games will probably end up selling better on the Wii (save for sports games, shooters, or anything that frat guys might play), but the 360 can still have million sellers from those titles even if it doesn't sell as well as the Wii version.

I'd go with the 360, but it's tough to say. The one year lead helped a lot.