Though it's still behind Awakening/Fates first weeks. Fire Emblem Awakening did 242k FW. Awakening was also launched on a smaller install base of 5.76m in Japan, while the Switch currently has an install base of 8.7m in Japan.
Though Three Houses will do better in the west IMO. So global sales will be above Awakening. Perhaps it could have stronger legs than Awakening in Japan and win there too, but that's less likely.
I feel like we're seeing a few franchises start to gain ground in the West while at the same time declining in Japan. Monster Hunter, Pokemon, I think FE too.
Until I get proven wrong. I still think the handheld franchises will see a decline in Japan. That includes Animal Crossing too. If the Switch lite is successful at increasing the software sales (at a certain margin) of already released Switch games then my perspective can be proven wrong.
And Yes the worldwide sales will really makeup for that decline in Japan.
Pocky Lover Boy!