If we assume the HD Wii would lose all of its casual titles, then we have to assume it would get some major HD games. Perhaps it would get a Zelda Breath of the Wild, or a Splatoon. The Wii got a lot of quality games in its first years, so the HD Wii would have gotten even more. Consoles sell due to games, but the HD Wii would have lost the blue ocean crowd. So I will call it a narrow loss, but still satisfactory performance. Overall 7th gen sales would be much lower, and the PS2 would have gained a bit by being the cheap popular casual console. Due to the PS2 continuing to do well and the PS3 being the most expensive out of 3 expensive consoles it would have lost even more. 360 would be the eventual winner with kinect and more momentum early without a cheap Wii.
So without further ado here is my estimates.
PS2- 172m
360- 85m
PS3- 73m
Wii HD- 67m
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