If MS continues and sells another 20 Million consoles this generation, then they will re-coup their investment.
2009-2012 = 4 years. 20M/4 = 5 million units/year required to hit this target.
Remembering most consoles sales occur when the price is lower i would say MS should make a profit this generation.
Predictions JAN 08
2008 PS3-19.5M(actual 19.5) XBOX360-23M(actual 27.5) Wii - 37M(actual 45.8M)
End of 2009 PS3-27 25M XBOX360-30 35M Wii - 48 63M (revised DEC 08)
Price Point
Mid 2008 Wii $250 Xbox360$249 Xbox360(HDD)$299 PS3 $399
Mid 2009 Wii $189 Xbox360$199 Xbox360(HDD)$249 PS3 $339
Mid 2010 Wii $ 149 Xbox360$159 Xbox360(HDD)$199 PS3 $289